Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions.
Council and Elections
Elections
One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown stand again and if he does, who else will put their hats in the ring to lead Auckland. Just as important will be the councillors around him. We already know that Angela Dalton from the Manurewa-Papakura ward is stepping down but what other changes will we see?
It’s not uncommon for the broad political makeup of the council shift in the opposite direction to the government of the day. Will that happen again and if it does, how will that change the equation about what kinds of policies and projects will get supported and funded.
Of course it’s not just the results in Auckland that will matter, what all elections in other regions around the country too.
Council
A big thing this year will be to see how what actually happens with Auckland Transport. What will be the final shape of the changes announced in December and how will things like transport policy change once councillors and council officers have more impact on shaping them. Though it’s likely we won’t see the true impact of this till 2026 which also makes the outcomes of the local body elections even more important.
One surprise twist we might see the government shifting control of the Auckland rail network to Auckland Transport. There’s a lot of distrust of Kiwirail’s management of the network, especially given the events of the last few years and having Auckland Transport manage it is something that’s been suggested in the past. If it was to happen, making the change at the same time as the other changes to Auckland Transport might make sense.
Public Transport
Ridership Recovery
As I highlighted in my yearly roundup, ridership recovery to pre-COVID levels seems to have stalled a little bit, will we see that tick up again as more businesses start to require more days working in the office and the impacts of some of the PT changes start to be felt?
Pukekohe gets rail back
In less than a month Pukekohe will finally get its rail service back after being shut for over two years as Kiwirail electrified and upgraded the line. That might help provide a bit of a boost to usage of the rail network, but …
Rail Pain to continue
The pain for rail network users is only going to continue in 2025 as Kiwirail try to get the rail network ready for the City Rail Link
We’re not even halfway though the massive summer rail shutdown and there’s plenty more disruption planned this year as in total, nearly 150 days of disruption are planned between Christmas just been and the end of January 2026. That includes 96 days of full closure and 53 days of partial closure.
There’s a bunch of pictures and information of the many worksites around the network over this current shutdown here.
City Rail Link to be Completed
One bright spot is the CRL will be getting closer and the project itself is due to be completed this year. But that doesn’t mean it will be open as it is then handed over to Auckland Transport who still need to do their own testing and training.
One milestone we’re looking forward to is that early this year we will see the first trains through the tunnel. By the end of 2025 these are bound to be a regular occurrence as testing and then training ramps up.
More bus changes ahead
We’ve seen a few big improvements to our bus network over the last year or so with changes like to the Northwest introducing the WX1 and more recently the crosstown bus services which included splitting up the Outer Link. This year we expect to see more improvements, though not likely on the scale of those previous two. The biggest change is likely to be the upgrading of the 120 bus, which travels between Henderson and Constellation Station to a frequent service. This is currently the most used non-frequent service and busier than many frequent routes and any of the other services recently upgraded to be frequent.
Active Modes
It’s bound to be another tough year for active mode projects given the current government policy around them but we will see the completion of the Pt Chevalier to Westmere improvements, which are already looking great, and the improvements for Gt North Rd are due to start soon.
City Centre
While much of the CRL focus will be on the testing the trains though the tunnels, on the surface we’ll still be seeing some change and in particular with Te Hā Noa which will see more sections completed, such as the bits around the Victoria St entrances to the Te Waihorotiu station.
We should also see the completion of the first stage of the Wellesley St bus improvements.
Roads
RoNS Shock
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has had a pretty easy ride from the media and the main opposition party so far as he’s gone about pushing the most expensive, ideological and evidence free transport policy the country has seen for a long time.
Will that easy run come to and end this year as the bill starts to be come clear for his massive road building programme. We already know this is estimated to cost billions more than they promised during the election campaign and it’s likely that’s just the tip of the iceberg and more detailed information on costs and timelines become clear.
I’m sure we’ll hear lots about things like Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) and tolling but ultimately billions more in funding will be needed and so the question is where that comes from. How many Hospitals or schools will need to miss out on upgrades to fund these big roads.
Speaking of PPPs, what’s the bet that in the rush to get these projects locked into PPPs we end up with some bad deals that will cost the country a lot in the years to come.
Pricing Delay?
The government are set to introduce legislation this year to progress congestion pricing though the announcement of this last year also appeared to add additional delay to the process so it will likely be years before we actually see it.
Housing
A couple of big questions hover over housing for 2025.
The first is what happens building consents. Will they pick up again, stabilise at the current level or fall further.
The second is what the government does around the council’s plan change to implement the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) and Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS). Minister Chris Bishop has not yet allowed the council to withdraw their plan change on these despite Mayor Wayne Brown wanting him to.
Other Stuff
Crossing Chaos to Continue
The government’s bungling of the interisland ferry process is bound to continue to reverberate though 2025, both from the replacement process itself but also as the existing aging ferries are bound to have more issues that will highlight the need for replacements even more.
Rail Disagreement?
As part of the most recent announcement of a future announcement on the ferries late last year, we also learnt that Winston Peters is now also the Minister for Rail. How will that play out in government that has shown little regard for rail outside of handful of corridors and that is directing almost all transport funding towards big roads.
What are you looking forward to, are concerned about and what are your predictions for the coming year?
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One of the concern this year and ongoing is Cost Of Living in NZ. How the Government can bring it down and make Government Services effective and value for money. No unwanted spends, no waste on tax payers money.
NZ is doing good on environmental save, how can NZ make use of her experience to influence other countries to do better in saving the environment.
You need to define unwanted to spend. I doubt two people agree on what this is, same for waste. Maybe start with these RoNS, before they start writing any (more) cheques.
NZ doing good on the environment? I think you need to travel a bit more. The only reason we are green is because we don’t have enough people to continue polluting the place.
NZ is a bit of a laughing stock when it comes to being “clean and green”. Even China is putting us to shame.
Should you has chances living in other countries, you will know how good NZ air is, how good their fruits are as all BZer are always proud of whatever they have.
NZ indeed good on environmental save. Look at the size of the population, it’s just a small fraction of any country but the results are excellent. NZ need to push other larger countries to do better on environment otherwise NZ efforts are wasted.
Nope. Here is just one overseas documentary. There are more:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-16/new-zealand-rivers-pollution-100-per-cent-pure/13236174
And if you can’t/can’t be bothered reading it, the title on the ABC website is:
“Behind NZ’s clean green image is a dirty truth”
On the cycling front, the links to Glen Innes routes should be completed in the coming months and Mangere West is due to start construction soon (apparently with more temporary materials due to budget constraints). Both would be positive steps though
We keep hearing from the Mayor that the replacement for AT will “put Aucklanders back in control”. But will it really? The proposal from Wayne Brown/Simeon Brown is that Councillors will make all sorts of decisions now made by AT, they will do so under an Auckland Transport Strategy set by a new committee with half its members appointed by the Minister of Transport, and the Chair will be jointly appointed by the Mayor and the Minister. All other regions throughout the country have their own Regional Land Transport Committee (with zero Ministerial appointees) to devise their own Regional Land Transport Strategy, revised every three years after public consultation. That is genuine local control in all other regions, even down to the smallest (West Coast Regional Council, population about 23,000) and has existed since the Land Transport Act 1998. Auckland used to have exactly the same system with a committee of 10 political reps (representing the ARC and 6 constituent Councils) plus various non-political appointees representing sector groups (bus operators, heavy transport, walking and cycling, disabled, economic development, environmental sustainability, Land Transport NZ, etc.). Having a reasonable number of non-political appointees provided a wider range of expertise and experience and mitigated against the fact that some politicians can’t help but put their own interests (getting re-elected) ahead of making wise and informed decisions. I am concerned that the proposed new structure could undermine decades of progress (albeit slow and painful at times) towards a more balanced transport system including fast and frequent public transport services.
Absolutely agree Graeme, this a central govt take over, not back in local control. Those three councillors will be easily played off against each other.
The bus numbers are stalling because many people are not tagging on. The bus transport officers are limited as what they casn do? Have there been many instant fines handed out? I was in Melbourne and on several rides I noticed very few people were tagging on. AT might have to start building bus stations where customers pay before they enter the bus.
“It’s not uncommon for the broad political makeup of the council shift in the opposite direction to the government of the day. Will that happen again”
That question doesn’t make sense in a context where Wayne Brown is decidedly “centrist” (goes along with the Govt a lot of the time, angrily opposes them just as often) and the council is 50/50. But I would expect a Right-wing shift (i.e. a pro-Government one) because, well, the whole world has decided to blame wokies and liberals for whatever’s wrong, and there is simply no Left-wing alternative for Council
Maybe if the left spent more time trying to improve peoples standard of living and less time telling them what the can’t eat and what words they are not allowed to say and what subjects they can’t discuss then maybe we could have some left wing governments. Instead the left tries to annoy the bejesus out of everyone.
Kind of funny how the “subjects they can’t discuss” turns out to be the ones about how certain groups of people need to be eliminated from the public square, huh
Yes but trying to stop people expressing opinions just means they disengage and vote for populists. We have seen that before and it never ends well.
and how’s letting populist scum exercise their “free speech” consequence-free to incite hate and violence working out? didn’t work in 1924, doesn’t work in 2024.
Who exactly is being denied free speech? I haven’t heard of Council locking anyone up…
People are outraged that their lies/sexism/racism etc do not go undisputed and feel cancelled.
Meanwhile the parties of the left try to control what people are allowed to say and only make themselves irrelevant. If you want to tell everyone they are wrong go right ahead. But nobody will elect you. Politics is an exercise in populism. Some voters are sexist or racist or transphobic and half of the voters are dumber than average. But pissing them off isn’t getting you elected. On the other hand Trump has shown us that pissing off the people the voters hate can get you elected.
I have to ask again – what speech is being controlled? Its certainly not the ones in your head.
Careful they might cancel you for making fun of someone with mental health issues. (Most of the voices in my head are quiet except for the one that keeps shouting ‘burn it’).
while the right rapes the planet of resources until the only thing left to eat *will* be bugs. just you wait for the water shortages and famines in the coming decades, miffy…
There is the problem. They left that used to defend working people are now a bunch of greenies trying to impoverish them. Annoying people is no path to government.
“hurrr durrr the ones treating climate change with appropriate energy are the bad guys, actually”
how hopped up on libertarian bullshit are you? i hope you feel shame someday.
“Annoying people is no path to government”
The Greens are the third highest polling party in NZ, and by some distance. If they aren’t in power, its because the left bloc has deserted Labour and they rule out working with the right. Its not because their message does not reasonate with a large group of people.
Their message will be consistent and they will be in government again, only with a much stronger voice. And no, I’m not a member/voter.
That there is part of the problem KLK. Every moderate and centrist knows if they vote Labour now then the Greens will be back. I would rather have National than those control freaks and I am not a member of the National party and have only voted for them 2 or 3 times out or 14 times I have voted. I only vote that way when Labour needs to be thrown out of office.
Do what I do. Vote Top 😉
That’s because the left are always trying to make people do whatever is inconvenient and they scream democracy while doing everything possible to make sure there is no choice and their way is the only way and you can’t live how you want, can’t drive your car, can’t decide how you spend you’re money, can’t have a say if speed limits are lowered or not, can’t have a say if a speed bump is built, can’t have a say if NZTA is changed to Waka Kotahi, can’t have a say if a cycleway gets built or not. It’s incredible after all that they claim they aren’t getting their “fair share” of the transport funding. Do they realise how lucky they are to have all those cycleways and speed bumps rammed in? In a true democracy we would’ve almost built none in this country apart from maybe the Northwest cycleway and a few touristy ones. Maybe if 100% of the focus was on improving PT to actually get people to want to use the services rather than their current strat 60% make it as annoying as possible to drive. Just remember whinging about the current govts transport policies which only had to come about because the left attacked democracy and dropped speed limits covering up with lies and pre determined questions to try and make it seem like there was somehow a majority support despite only about 10% of drivers following the new speed limits including cyclists flying through the 30 zones. Why is Simeon getting an easy pass on the “ideological” RONS?….. BECAUSE THATS WHAT THE PUBLC WANT. Remember Geoff Upson who talks a load of rubbish has somehow become just as much of an expert as any actual expert. People vote based on vibes not evidence. We need to realise that and see where we can get actual real wins not forced ones. For example we could build rail to the shore by doing it at the same time as building a new road I would suggest a majority would support this. But the way you want to do it is walking and cycling only or rail only which you full well know is just asking for a culture war you complain so much about.
Sorry if anyone doesn’t like this comment but it’s seeing the situation how it is. Some of the articles on here are so frustratingly naive they keep acting like they have 100% of the vote.
Reality Check is thataway buddy
Why should the public have any say over technical issues like whether a speed hump gets put in or a speed limit is reduced? They simply aren’t qualified and, as you said, aren’t going to listen to evidence as much as emotion and personal annoyances. We don’t consult the public about whether to use stop signs vs give way, how many seconds of yellow time to give a signal, sight distances, weight restrictions or which asphalt to use either because these are evidence-based safety, technical, cost and operational decisions just like traffic calming and speed limits are. We have skilled technicians, planners and engineers who are actually qualified to make the technical decisions.
But saying the public doesn’t get a say is simply incorrect. Councils DO consult the public on the speed limits and traffic calming, endlessly, and then back down very quickly at the hint of opposition. So many evidence-based projects that would improve the city and make our streets safer have been scuttled because someone got the ear of a councilor.
Furthermore, we’re already getting told how to get around. We are constantly told that we have to drive everywhere for everything unless we happen to work in the city centre. Everyone gets to drive everywhere and whenever they want, speeding and illegally parking with minimal enforcement and we keep spending billions to make it faster and easier and cheaper yet if someone wants to ride a bike or walk, they have to risk their lives dodging cars. I personally can ride around because I’m fairly hardcore and don’t give a F but others are effectively chained to their cars and completely out of luck if they can’t drive. People with disabilities have to go hundreds of metres out of their way to get a nominally “safe” crossing, often having to go out into the road to avoid cars parked on the footpath by people who simply don’t care. Buses with dozens of people have to sit in massive queues of people sitting alone in huge metal boxes because any suggestion of putting in a bus lane that might possibly inconvenience a few cars at the peak is too scary so there is no reliable way to improve PT without spending hundreds of millions to buy up homes and build redundant corridors. It’s literally easier to evict dozens of families than to reallocate a lane.
That’s what I call being told how to get around and not being able to live the way we want.
I have to say Jimmy I’m impressed you raised some good points then began to lie. “They back down at the slightest hint of opposition” Bulls**t they charge ahead at the slightest hint of opposition. Te Irirangi drive ring any bells? Was 80k huge opposition AT went ahead and lowered it anyway. Kerikeri road had a fair bit of opposition 80 slashed to 50 just because they can. Avimore drive had 24 submissions against the reduction only 9 in favour what do you think happend? BANG lowered because they already made up their mind. 400 people more were against the speed reductions than for during Phase 2 what do you think happened lowered speeds. Roads are a public resource and people deserve to have a right to say if they want to ignore evidence. For example if the evidence said that building a 4 lane expressway from Auckland to Kaitaia would reduce deaths would you support that I would suggest you’d be jumping up and down complaining. You see you can get evidence to prove almost anything you want with the right funds. Hence why we base decisions off the only science that matters, Political Science.
And what kind of crazy person would want our public money being spent on consultation on some random name change for some public agency? Consultations are expensive and should be reserved for important issues where the public could provide some useful insight that might otherwise be missed by the technicians and decision makers. It’s such a weird hang-up. That said, we certainly didn’t get consulted on whether we wanted tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent on changing it BACK.
Ok Jimmy fair point it didn’t need to be changed back but it doesn’t sound like you’re criticising it getting changed in the first place. Why was a name change even on their mind. Given this agency was surposedly focused on safety first and getting the job done. It shouldn’t have even been on their mind proving they are woke as can be.
I think that we should be thankful for Winston. Him managing rail is a much better alternative than what we had before and I believe he will throw enough weight around to provide some positive rail surprises.
He’s already shown that, by stepping into the Interislander mess and if rumours are correct blocking the plan to completely remove rail from ferries etc.
With 120 becoming a frequent route, perhaps a user-friendly and safe station could be built. One were safety is considered. The current bus-stop robberies in Westgate, at the old WX bus-stop, isn’t helping current services. Few living east of Westgate are keen to connect, instead preferring the more expensive ride to Constellation.
Winnie hates Auckland doesn’t he? And light rail?
He could make things even worse…
the old dinosaur was so pigheaded he only supported the worst airport mass transit option, the puhinui spur. his interest in heavy rail and heavy rail alone is entirely old greyhair foamer-ism and he has no interest in quality public transport fundamentals like turn-up-and-go frequencies or transit-oriented development
see also mike lee, jon reeves, will mckenzie…
Yeah, its a dilemma, isn’t it.
Still, if he supports heavy rail for freight, that is still a positive and may have benefits for passengers eventually (depending on the route), once he moves on.
Hypothetical example:
Peters listens to Napier Port (and Richard Prebble) and closes the container port in Wellington, with the business consolidated at Napier. Rail line used to transfer freight between the two cities.
As a spin-off, we could then introduce the “Ruahine Runner” proposed by the Greens when the Manawatu Gorge was closed. A twice-daily passenger service between the two cities.
Hypothetical example indeed. The rail line between Napier and Wellington is in an appalling condition. Bad or no maintenance for years. Can’t send much freight that way…. Just saying
Napier Port’s proposal is to upgrade that rail line, to facilitate movement of the container port activities to Napier.
“For example we could build rail to the shore by doing it at the same time as building a new road..”
We could. But, you, know…. National. They despise rail. They are fighting the transport culture war you say you hate.
I am currently in Perth.
Some of the newer Train lines run down the centre of the motorways. It is fun being in a train (130kph) passing cars (100kph).
I think the sheer costs of these RoNs is why we’re seeing announcements about grass being cleared for the Hawkes Bay expressway and exploratory drilling for Warkworth to Wellsford made to sound like the projects have started.
It’s also why we’re being told what the toll will be for projects that aren’t even close to the consenting stage yet.
Funny how the mainstream never applied that same logic to ALR…
I wonder if it is coincidental that NZTA have just notified the transport sector that discount rates to be used in economic analyses have been slashed to 2% (years 1-30), reducing to 1.5% (years 31-60) and 1% (60+).
This will help make BCRs for RONS look slightly better than otherwise (if the old 4% rate was used). I will be interested to see what mathematical gymnastics they throw in to get the BCR just over 1.1.
I’m supportive of lower discount rates for long-term public investments. But we cannot forget that it is intended to also be used to compare and prioritise investments – ie if the BCR of RONS increases, then so will the BCRs of all other possible projects.
Yay for Pukekohe.
And direct trains between Pukekohe and Hamilton.
Following the year of big promises comes the year of small deliveries. Having taken away the option of a regional fuel tax to raise revenue for local funding, the government has set spending rules that mean that mostly their choice projects are eligible for NLTF funding. Some Auckland projects that were already in progress will continue, we can be pleased to see. Redoubt Road (the first real bit of Mill Road Corridor) was first designed and designated by Manukau City Council and (might) start up soon – with some property to purchase and another shot at coming up with an affordable design, and no funding for the middle of Murphys Road. But that will at least get people from Botany/Flat Bush to SH1. Eastern Busway will continue, finishing the Reeves Road flyover and more of the busway to get people from Pakuranga and Botany to SH1 and the City, rail renewal and CRL will help to get passengers to the City via Panmure from… Pakuranga and Botany. Is there some pattern here?
Meanwhile, all the PT, active mode and safety improvements that Auckland needs and wants are excluded from NLTF funding that they would normally receive.
So Auckland could set its own transport programme – but only with Rates funding. Not sure that the Mayor and Councillors see that as a good prospect.
Here’s hoping that either AT gets control of our rail network, or that a 3rd party entity takes over KR’s rails (Ontrack 2.0). I think for NZ it’s better if it’s a 3rd party rather than AT, as we want a neutral track manager that can get lambasted by all sides if they take too long to fix stuff (and they wouldn’t have a competing issue to not charge what’s needed to maintain the network, so they could charge what’s needed like Auckland Airport, within ComCom constraints).
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The 120 should become the 12 – a frequent local bus, but there should be an express bus roughly from Westgate to Constellation without any stops (UHEX), that would be performing the role of an express West to North and vice versa route, like the NX1/NX2 does for North to CBD, the WX1 does from NW to CBD, Skybus does from CBD to Airport and our rail lines provide the other ones.
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Ferries are still a mess, hopefully NZF gives the gov enough cover that they can get the rail ferries back without costing too many more billions than the original plan. Put the blame on Wellington port/Labour/KR mismanagement, then do what Napier Port wanted and put the rail ramps on the better land. Centreport is a shit port, and it’s far less important than the interisland connection. Only people who will care if Centreport is gone is Wellington, and let’s be brutally honest, they already hate the gov – so it’s best for the country, for no real political cost.
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Re AT being put more under central/local’s thumb, is dumb, we’re just giving central gov more of a say re our transport, and they already (regardless of who is in gov) manage to turn Auckland gold into shit. AT ain’t great atm, but I don’t think giving central gov control over it is going to make things better. They’re meant to be big and bad enough to be able to stand up to the gov and do what’s needed for Auckland.
Western Line Works ;-
Is a bloke with a rake and a bloke in a digger the gold standard method for relaying/shaping track ballast? Full credit to them, they look like they’re doing hard yakka, but is there another more efficient mechanised process we could be applying instead? Eg does NZ have any of these? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballast_regulator
59 seconds mark in this video shows one being used in Auckland metro area
Work on the Saturday and Sunday on the same section of Line ;–
I’m surprised that there is no mention here of the stadium debate, or stadium wrangling and shifting in general.
It has not only been a long-running debate (saga) but also has significant consequences for the city.
Found a better video
Here we are in 2025! New year and new beginnings!
Hopefully this is the year we will hear hints of what National ‘public transport plans’ are for 2026-2029 term if elected. More focus on ‘public transport rapid transit projects’ is needed particularly in Auckland & Christchurch.
What National has seemed to not understood is that ‘public transport rapid transits’ lowers the ‘cost of living’ for anyone 18-30 years old by making mainline services accessible and commutes quicker. National can’t be just solely focusing on building roads after roads in Auckland & Christchurch. Both cities are bottlenecked in central parts cause of lack of prioritised rapid transit corridors. The main issue for everyday commuters using public transport in Auckland & Christchurch currently is getting from point A(home) to B(work) vice-versa. Often these journeys take anywhere between 30-90 mins each way depending on where you live and where you work.
For anyone who’s 18-30 years old renting, that’s not easy given your likely independently alone and rent prices average $450 per week if on minimum wage. Another issue is most tenants live in the outside the CBD area, Eden Terrace, Grafton, Parnell or Newmarket given there near no tenancy market for $450 per week outside of CBD. There is tenency market in Otahuhu, Manurewa & Papakura, but if you work ffin CBD that ends up being a journey time between 60-90 mins each way for any 18-30 years old renting. That might seem like nothing but it’s not, cause one it takes away persons ‘quality of life’. Also you need to factor in 18-30 years old renting life, needing to cook anywhere from 30 mins-1 hr to prepare each meal(Breakfast 30mins -1 hr+ Dinner 30 mins-1hr=1 hrs-2hrs each day), laundry however many times of week from 2-3 hrs to do, cleaning depending how many times a week takes 2-3 hrs to do and lastly resting anywhere from 9-7 hrs. That gives you near no free-time or down-time which is vitally important for proper brain development & social wellbeing. 18-30 years old renting really need tenancies in suburbs in Auckland cause often its not easy to juggle with tenancy life & work-life. Building more public transport rapid transits fixies cost of tenancies, make more supply of tenancies creates competitive pricing for tenants and ‘quick mainline public transport rapid transit’ more accessible/commutes from point A to B vice-versa quicker and lastly more free-time for 18-30 years olds for those working in the CBD.
Most 18-30 years old renting, typically work in CBD area and rarely work in suburban areas or industrialised areas due to how adequate transport system is in Auckland & Christchurch
For Auckland we need Rapid Transit projects needed:
Heavy Rail North Shore line
Heavy Rail Dominion RD or Sandringham RD
Christchurch Rapid Transit projects needed:
Heavy Rail Christchurch – Rolleston + Rangiora
Has anyone looked at what percentage of journeys are Public Transport in Auckland per month in the last 7 years?
The percentage may have remained similar due to less journeys overall.
The even more detailed look would be what is the percentage 0700 to 0900?