All-new 2023 census data has just been released, giving a great window into: how many New Zealanders there are, who we are, where we work (and how we get there), and who still has landline phones (31% of households!).
But it’s also fun* to put things in a historical context. How much has Auckland grown over time? What about other cities and places?
Speaking of history, I had a lot more spare time in my BC (before children) era. Rather than chasing a ball around a field or improving my social skills, I wisely decided to create a population database going back to 1891, using census data (report and data tables kindly hosted on Greater Auckland).
Auckland was already the biggest city in NZ by 1891, and has been ever since. Christchurch started the 20th century with more people than Wellington, was overtaken in the 1910s, and then regained its second-largest-city title quite recently (sometime between the 1990s and 2010s, depending on how exactly you define the areas – my graph is a bit unfair to Christchurch).** Dunedin doesn’t make the cut for these graphs because it was overtaken by Hamilton in around 2000, and then Tauranga in the 2010s.
Auckland saw huge population growth between the 2013 and 2018 censuses, as did New Zealand as a whole. Growth dropped between 2018 and 2023, but it was a game of two halves – one a bit shorter than the other. Two years of record-breaking growth from March 2018 to March 2020, then a complete turnaround through to March 2023 with Covid and border closures. For a short period, Auckland’s population was actually dropping. The city is now rapidly growing again.
Looking at the full historical data, Auckland’s population grew fastest in the 1950s-1970s. Over 20 years Auckland grew by 84% vs just 39% for the rest of New Zealand. Auckland became so (relatively) big that it added more people than the rest of Zealand combined: from 1971 to 2013 Auckland grew by 650,000 people vs 575,000 across the rest of the country. This really changed in the last decade, with Auckland slowing down just a little while other places caught up. On a percentage basis, Auckland’s growth was in line with the national average over 2013-2023, and on a numbers basis we added 240,000 people while other areas added 510,000 – almost as much as they’d grown in the previous 40 years.
Coming when I get some free time: a full update of the database and report, with some comments on how things have changed since 2013 (quite a lot! Population growth! Statistical boundary reclassifications!), a name change (‘Aotearoa Local Population Database’ would be much better) and what I should have done the first time around (focus on ‘usually resident population’ rather than ‘census night population’). Thanks to my former employer RCG for letting me shift the database here so it can remain publicly accessible.
* Your definition of fun may vary
** These graphs are rough updates only, using council boundaries and switching to usually resident population figures for 2013-2023
(Header image of our not just Greater, but demographically Greatest, city by Stuart Donovan)
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If the same statistical criteria for including neighbouring satellite towns that Greater Wellington uses was used for Greater Christchurch, then it would have a population of about 550,000 people. By the end of the decade, Greater Christchurch will have over 600,000 people.
Greater Chch- the “banana” – actually includes three other councils if you add on the bottom end of Hurunui (Waipara and Amberley which have been in the commuting zone for thirty years). Forty per cent of the South Island population lives within an hour’s drive of Christchurch.
Demographically NZ is becoming more the Aussie states- which are dominated by the capital city regions, Queensland excepted. So Sydney is “bookended” by Wollongong and Newcastle and Auckland is bookended by Hamilton and Tauranga.
Auckland also has some “border” issues to the south,
There is significant population growth not being counted which is occurring in Pokeno (700 to 6000 in 10 years)
I would imagine that a significant number of these new resident will look north to Auckland, rather than to other waikato District hubs…
Tuakau is probably likely to have similar issues in the future…
Yup, those are good ballpark numbers – Stats NZ has a newish ‘Functional Urban Areas’ which is a good way of thinking about wider metropolitan areas (including some satellite towns and rural/ lifestyle hinterlands but all in much the same employment market) https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/functional-urban-areas-methodology-and-classification/. I don’t have the data mapped to those yet, unfortunately (and I don’t think I’ll ever be able to get quite the same length of historical data for it; but usually can for council areas).
Greater Christchurch is much larger than Greater Wellington now, and its growth over 2013-2023 is maybe one of the biggest stories of that period. Will try to tackle in a later post!
The main thing that stood out to me from the population counts is that there are only seven territorial authorities / local boards that lost population since 2018: The Chatham Islands, 5 Auckland central ones, and Wellington City. Auckland and Greater Wellington’s population still grew as a whole, but none of that growth was in the urban core.
What happened to the “quality compact cities” we were promised by all the Councilors?
TLDR: It was always bullshit
What happened is Plans and Places and ‘character’.
Zoning creating economic exclusion.
My understanding was that growth of Auckland in some decades up to about 1970 was not particularly fast compared to the rest of the upper North Island. Hamilton’s population grew very quickly in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s. And Tauranga went from a tiny settlement with one tar sealed street to a much larger settlement. Perhaps a more appropriate comparison is Auckland vs the rest of the North Island.
Disposable income has often been highest in some South Island towns, such as Ashburton and Timaru. NZ’s Maori population has been moving south for better paid jobs. And people are fleeing Tauranga for centres with less traffic.
Fair points re Hamilton and Tauranga, they were super fast on a percentage basis!
I think you’ll find that Hams and Tauranga he quickly as people were being priced out of Auckland even then.
My family being case in point. Waikato was much cheaper then Auckland in the late 70s/early 80s, nevermind today where house prices in Auckland are terrible, especially when you look at the low low quality of most dwellings on offer.
I’m not sure they would even be allowed to be built in the UK and Europe.
Second Brendon Harre’s comment above, as someone who lived in Auckland and now Christchurch. I think for Christchurch you need to definitely include both the Waimakariri and Selwyn District Councils’ populations under Christchurch to ensure that it’s a fairer comparison. Both Rolleston (Selwyn) and Kaiapoi and Rangiora (Waimakariri) are every bit as integrated to Christchurch as the Hutt Valley and Porieua are to Wellington. Give it time I expect Rangiora and Rolleston will be seen as the equivalents of the North Shore, Manukau City or Howick for Christchurch.
*Porirua
Agreed! I was short on time to write this post sorry; a fairer comparison of those metropolitan Christchurch/ Wellington areas will come sometime in the future.
No problem, in fact my workplace is in North Canterbury and I have personally witnessed attitudes over what is North Canterbury vs Christchurch (“town”) and who belongs together etc change over the years. For a long time Rangiora was seen as the Pukekohe of Canterbury where you need to dial in an area code for landline calls to Christchurch, outside Christchurch as a satellite town but with a life of its own. It’s now evolved into a meshed region with Christchurch that while you have many Rangiora residents working and studying in Christchurch, you also get many people from Christchurch (like your truly) working in North Canterbury each day (and bus passengers and car traffic are testimonies of this growing trend over time).
In 1978 Auckland+Wellington+Christchurch had 46% of New Zealand’s population. In 2023, they have 50%. Not such a big change, considering. But if you looked at the proportion living in or north of Hamilton, there would be a big change.
Population growth 1990-2023:
NZ: +57%
USA: +37%
EU-28: +7%
World: +52%
As a kiwi who has lived overseas for 15+ years, I’m amazed that the countries population has increased by 25% while I’ve been away. No way has infrastructure kept pace with that (schools and medicine particularly).
There would be an outcry about this in most other developed nations.
Luckily, we have planned ahead and Rangiora and Rolleston will be serviced by a rapid transit corridor.
Oh, wait….
Interesting numbers thanks.
You only went back to the 1890s – it would be great to see Otago / Dunedin in there, whose growth period was, I think, in the 1840-1870s. Population far greater than Auckland at that stage, I believe? Wool income and gold rushes do wonderful things to statistical calculations.
Yes, hurting in Ōtepoti
I’m aware of one researcher who’s gone back a little further – Hugh Dickey who published a book ‘The Growth of New Zealand Towns’ – his work suggests that Auckland was the largest city from the first census in 1851, but was briefly overtaken by Christchurch and Dunedin for about a decade from the 1870s-1880s before pulling ahead again.
“Auckland was the largest city from the first census in 1851”
Did that include Onehunga, which was then a (comparative to other cities NZ had) large place, but I think was considered quite separate from Auckland?
Hugh’s data, like mine, tries to use current boundaries – i.e. how many people lived within Auckland’s current boundary in 1851, 1891 etc. So this would include any cities/ boroughs/ counties/ other areas that existed within that boundary.
Defining boundaries to ‘cities’ is not straightforward. Looking at population, it would be interesting to see how you might define Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch and possibly Hamilton according to the proportion of population in census zones working somewhere within the metropolitan boundaries. This would allow some understanding of dormitory vs. self-contained towns. I would expect fuzzy boundaries, with Pukekohe and Warkworth being interesting. Wellsford, Waiuku and Kawakawa Bay may not identify greatly with Auckland.
Also that fuzzy boundary concept may change over time. I work in Rangiora and in the 2000’s a work acquaintance back then quipped that “just because we live across the Waimakariri River doesn’t mean that we are part of Christchurch, just as someone living on the other side of a hill won’t be saying he is part of the city by the hill”. 20 years later, the same workplace has at last 1/3 to 1/2 people not being local North Cantabrians.
Is the second diagram missing an Auckland line?
Off the chart?
Different scale to show the non-Auckland pops growth better.
Growth is not always good but it does bring vibrancy. One city that has gone backwards in relative terms is Invercargill whee the population has barely changed – one would expect QLDC to be overtaking the pop of Invercargill City soon.