Young people are still increasingly continuing not to get drivers licences, let alone drive.
Growing numbers of teens are refusing to get behind the wheel, because they think cars cost too much, they’re worried they might drive into someone, or they just can’t be bothered sitting their licence.
A worldwide trend known as “driving ambivalence” has hit young people in New Zealand. Figures show the number of teens getting their licences has dropped drastically in the past five years.
Experts cite a variety of reasons for the decline, from the expense of maintaining a vehicle to the dangers of driving.
They also say smartphones and social media have rendered the need for teens to get behind the wheel less important.
As mentioned the key thing that’s happening is that this isn’t a one off but a worldwide trend and is being seen across most countries in the western world.
This is the data I received recently from the NZTA on the number of licences issued. While it has bounced up in 2013 that is really just the impact rolling through from the change to the licencing system in late 2011 that increase the age you can first get your licence to 16. Despite the bounce back up, the numbers are still way down on what they were in the past.
Crucially the change is being seen across many age groups and young people are choosing not to drive. But why?
University of Otago PhD student Aimee Ward, who is studying the travel behaviour of young people, says research shows the lack of interest in driving is occurring all over the world.
Ward said it was possible that some people would never get a driver’s licence, leading to a rise in public transport use.
Focus groups had overwhelmingly told her that cost was an issue – licence cost, vehicle prices and maintenance fees all came into the equation.
“But they are also ambivalent about driving,” Ward said.
“Their parents or friends will drive them around so they don’t need a licence. I said to them, what if you get a job? And they reply, it would need to be at the weekend so my parents could drive me.”
A recent international study showed a correlation between internet use and licensure rates in Sweden, Norway, Great Britain, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Germany.
The study found “access to virtual contact reduces the need for actual contact among young people”.
Another factor at play is the growing awareness of the impact that cars have on the natural and urban environment. The trend also ties in with the trend we are seeing of young people increasingly choosing to live in more urban environments rather than the suburban lifestyle many were probably brought up in.
These licence changes are also going to partly be behind the change in the number of vehicle kilometres travelled per capita. Below is the VKT for Auckland showing the substantial change that has been occurring.
Of course there are many out there, particularly those that want to see sustained investment in new roads that claim this is just a blip and that soon all of these young people will learn they were wrong and suddenly rush back to driving. I’m not so convinced and if we can continue to improve the alternatives of PT, walking and cycling then many will simply not need to.
All of this isn’t to say that having a drivers licence is bad, in fact I think quite the opposite as it is an incredibly useful life skill to have. It will be fascinating to see what happens.
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The article also says they expect their parents to take them in their cars.
that would relate to the lack of all day, 7 day, cross-city public transport. The guy interviewed says he is happy to take the bus, but the buses won’t take him everywhere he wants to go. I think teens will be big users of the new frequent weekend services.
Based on my observations this week whilst using the NEX and the Western Line, it will be more than teens utilising the new network. Be ready for a surprise over the next 3 or 4 years me thinks.
Yes. Teens who didn’t get licenses in the last 5 years are now entering their 20s. They will continue to filter through.
Teens aren’t “choosing” at all. The greedy National government makes sure it now costs parents nearly $3000 so families can’t afford it on the low wages John Key is determined to keep people on.l,
Revnue gathering and absurdly hard tests to pocket as many resit testing fees as possible for he National Government.
Government also lets “testers” fail all the cars that don’t look flash just for not being attractive enough for the prissy tester to get in, while they pocket the testing fee, because lets exploit as many people as possible while revenue gathering. That’s the National Party way.
My preference would be that given the fact that most teenagers use social media on their phones.
I’d prefer a teenager who is either a passenger or a PT user than one who drives and does “social media” at the same time, and is thus a danger on the road to everyone.
.
And I wonder that perhaps what is behind the reluctance to drive – is a high degree of self-awareness leading to avoidance behaviour.
i.e.
1. They use social media continuously
2. They want to get around and use social media while doing so as well (being driven by someone and/or using PT allows this)
3. Driving would “make” them more dangerous to themselves and others on the road as they know they would feel compelled to answer each text or update from their friends even while driving
4. As a result of this they are aware of it and the dangers and actively chose to limit their exposure to this “temptation” and therefore don’t drive (or even learn to drive).
I base this in part on the how many teens have to text and whatever while in a movie on the basis that if they don’t their friends assume the worst about them.
So they really seem to feel they have to stay in touch.
So you have a collective peer-pressure to stay in touch – which (in some teenagers at least), leads to the the current situation of low driving and driving license uptake.
I notice older drivers in their 20’s and older, continually text and use their phones while driving, and I think they feel that they can juggle these two things at once.
[reality tells us otherwise]. And younger ones either do not feel they can or (wisely) choose not to.
Now the question is, is this a generational shift, or a temporary thing, imagine if in 5 years we have phones with good voice response, would teens then feel unable to drive and socially interact via their phone then? And what happens if the voice communication becomes the next big thing for social media – it would not be particularly welcome on a train or bus if everyone is jabbering at their phones, so that might swing the need back to do it in your car so in that case we could come back full circle.
Especially if self-driving cars become common place – then the driver could delegate the driving to someone else while they are again merely a passenger.
But I don’t see that trend happening for 10+ years.
I live in southern California, U.S. I’m 27 and have never had my license and just confirmed I never plan to. My number one reason is that according to the Center for Disease Control motor vehicle accidents are the number one cause of death for people between 5-34 and 65+. It’s the number two cause of death for every other age group. It’s the single most dangerous activity that a majority of people take part in every day. There is a 2/3 chance you will be injured in a car accident here, a 1/20 chance it will be a serious injury. With two young children, I’m not willing to risk it safety when we can walk and use public transport. I also don’t want to be responsible for other people’s lives like that. Secondary but still important is the environment and our own health. Walking is great exercise. I’m going to drive and then go to the gym instead? Then there’s the cost. Nope, driving isn’t for me.
I’d also like to add that a majority of millennials prefer text over voice communication. So I don’t really see the next big thing going against that.
Yes, the article studiously ignores any discussion of the environmental impact of driving and the idea that this might be a reason why the young aren’t driving. And while it does mention public transport it strongly suggests that they are really just drivers waiting to happen; nothing to do with the fact that by not driving they can use their time more productively while sitting in a train/bus/ferry or riding a bike.
I have a restricted license but don’t have a car. My wife doesn’t have a license at all, we use PT for visiting family, work and going shopping. I am considering getting a car though just bc the weather is awful sometimes and the bus stop is a 15 min walk and also I want to get out and about more where PT doesn’t go.
There is a small mention…”a growing awareness of the impact of cars”
I doubt its that simple, if it was that they would be living at home, eating vegetarian and never going to have kids or own a house..
I think that the comments about how concerned they feel about having to maintain control 1 tonne of moving metal and how any mistake could hurt someone plays a much bigger part. Yes, environment plays a part, but its not the overarching belief/reason for how they respond.
I do wonder if somehow the “cotton wall” upbringing makes them reluctant to shoulder some responsibility – they’re comments about controlling a car showing this.
Not thats, thats wrong, it just that perhaps that they have a more worldy view than they are being given credit for perhaps?
And if so,then perhaps they’ll do a better job of running the country when their time come than we do now.
Yep and since millenials are the constituency of Generation Zero presumably the environmental impacts are a factor for some at least.
I remember how at my old high school at my first year in 2007, some school students were complaining about the lack of carparks on site. But when I left in 2011, the students were complaining about the lack of cycling facilities while the car park is only half used for the whole year. Whoop de doo.
I remember that, but that was mostly because 16 & 17 year olds both had licenses, when the age changed only 17 year olds could have licenses (restricted). So that explains why the carpark usage cut in half.
Even if these teenagers change their minds in years to come and decide to take up driving after all there is still going to be a slump in total car numbers for several years yet.
Logically then, all current road projects that are being touted as necessary right now to relieve congestion could be put on hold. The steady decline in vehicle kilometres travelled per capita will ease road congestion without the need for even one more metre of tarmac.
Not quite all projects can be put on hold.
As you assume that the VKT drop is spread evenly all over – It is not.
So there are still “knots” of congestion that need to be tackled still, ad the CFN proposes, but not all proposed projects are needed any time soon.
And some knots are holding up PT – so those areas should be fixed first, and the others only once proven to be be needed.
But certainly second harbour crossing can be put back as can the Holiday Highway.
I think PT would have more usage if it covered more area’s, some areas are just PT dead and require you to walk/cycle a ton every day which is tedious for most, especially if you want to use it for more than just getting to/from work/study and want to use it for grocery shopping, outings and/or visiting friends/family. Its annoying that the buses use nearby ash street only when not in service and there are no stops there except for school buses and the extremely infrequent 104 route, these sort of areas just generate a bunch of car users.
I have cut my personal VKT to around 25% of what it was without reducing my productivity, with the additional side benefit of increasing my fitness. (I just wish I could still reasonably claim to be young).
Over the next couple of years this kind of shift will become easier and easier for more and more people to do in Auckland and Transit services and Cycling amenity gradually improves.
The challenge we put down to AT and NZTA and AC is to get on with the next transformational shifts in a joined up and visionary way. I am confident that the CRL will begin to the Mayors timing which is the vital next step as it will lead an total revolution in Auckland’s performance and in fact whole identity.
Because what is at stake here is what I referred to in the first sentence. These alternative modes are the drivers of productivity in our growing and urbanising young city, not more motorways.
Is there any mention of how damned expensive it is to get a drivers licence? Its a real clip the ticket exercise for the authorities and one of the factors that is also discouraging new drivers along with car purchase price, insurance costs, maintenance and the various taxes (that go up and up) that go with car ownership. .
I agree licensing costs/difficulties must be a contributing factor. In saying that a similar trend is apparent in a number of countries overseas, which suggest that there are some more universal socio-economic factors underlying the changes that we are seeing.
I would love top see just one country actually tax people for the external costs of driving to see how unpopular driving becomes.
not to mention the cost of learning to drive. i was lucky enough to have parents that were willing to pay for a few lessons and spend a fair bit of their own time teaching me while i was still living at home.
but if i were to learn to drive now (in my mid 20s) i’d be paying for lessons myself and/or relying on the generosity of my friends – all of a sudden this starts looking like a costly and laborious process. the few people i know who have reached their mid 20s without learning to drive look as if they’ll never bother learning.
what’s interesting about the above graph is that the number of learner/restricted licenses declined from 2004 onwards, whereas numbers of full licenses declined only after 2009.
Yes I read that as the first to drop out were the ones who were on the fence anyway and those that really wanted to drive kept on doing so.
Whatever the reason is for the decline, the fact remains that younger people are driving less ergo they will need to get themselves around in other ways. They will graduate beyond “my parents could drive me” and start to integrate fully with walking/cycling and PT. This will create a culture of traveling by these modes as opposed to the current default of the private car. Once these patterns are established – through support and development – they will endure. This is THE golden opportunity to start getting it right and to move away from the dominance of petrochemicals and the auto industry. A re-prioritisation of spending to grow walking, cycling and PT is the obvious way forward.
What’s the Auckland Vehicle Kilometres figure on a non-per capita basis, which is the figure that counts when it comes to funding allocation?
last tie I look it was pretty flat; the decline in per capita VKT was largely offsetting population growth. May have ticked up again recently as both population and economic growth have returned – although whether that’s specific to Auckland is another matter.
Actually dropped for the last year the data is available (2012).
A lack of responsibility expecting parents’ to drive them around. Before i bought my first car at 21, I had to walk, bike, use PT or get lifts from friends. Got my licence at 16 and it was a step to adulthood. Also extremely useful as ID.
Well put Owen. I too got my licence at 16 and my parents were very happy. The change in rules has almost certainly been the main driver behind these figures, and it is worrying that many start with Learners, but are not moving to the next step, and yet are continuing to drive without demonstrating they have the skill and knowledge. Many jobs demand a full drivers licence.
That is changing.
My firm no longer requires prospective employees to have drivers licenses, simply because we don’t need then to do our job. It was one of the first things I changed when I became manager.
My 18-year old son commented that he preferred taking the bus and train to Melbourne (from country Victoria) over driving. It’s not as tiring or boring. One of his friends has just started working on a property in the Northern Territory, for which he needs a vehicle. His ute cost $20,000, and insurance nearly $2000 per year for an 18-year-old. But for those at university a vehicle is a lot of expense when the public transport is so good. For my son it’s a walk across the road from the residence college to campus, and to visit the CBD for socialising is a 40 minute connecting bus and train trip with a half hourly frequency until midnight.
My two teenagers over 16 have not got their licences despite my support and urgings for them to do so, including offering yo pay for lessons. Furthermore we do not chauffeur them around. They just take transit ride their bikes and walk, all easier options because of our proximity to their destinations; Uni, the city, and their mates.
I think driving is a useful skill that they should acquire but then I guess if they’re not likely to use it I can see why they don’t bother. But hey, I can see a time when I might want to be chauffeured by them!
The eldest did get her restricted in 2012 but didn’t go on to the full licence, and has never driven. Mind you she has just spent 9 months riding the rails and buses in North America and Europe so has seen how good real Transit can be so she may be lost to driving for ever…
Nice work on the telly, Matt. #onya
and Louis
I think its premature to trust any of that data. If you look at the trend you could say that the ‘dip’ coincides with the GFC and period of high fuel prices. I think it would be prudent to see the effects of improcved economy and lower fuel prices in the next few years before making any judgements.
Phil perhaps you don’t see it from where you are on the other side of the world but NZ and in particular Auckland’s economy has been going along fairly well for some time now.
Hi Matt
Yes you are right we have been going along well however like all around the world youth unemployment is a record highs with NZ youth rate being around 3- 4 times the overall rate. Just Google youth unemployment.
Phil you could argue that when the world economy picks up the demand for fuel will increase and at the same time the NZ$ will drop relative to other countries. Fuel could increase in price considerably from here.
Since about 2012 I guess from the data set above….
The drop off in 2011/12 was due to changes in the minimum age you can get a licence in late 2011 which has taken till 2013 to flow through fully.
You “transport blog analyst” you! 🙂
Pfft, without a drivers license, how will one survive the zombie apocalypse? Will no-one think of the children?!?!?
Do we have longer term for VKT data or is it just starting from 2001?
Phil, I think it is harder and harder to use the GFC to justify the definite downward trend in Auckland VKT. NZ hasn’t nearly suffered as much as overseas and this is a trend that has held for several years pre/post GFC and cannot be ignored as a deviation.
However, I have raised before the suggestion that the driver licensing data is hiding a number of poorer youth who simply drive without a license because they cannot afford the licensing costs. This is a known issue among police in South/West Auckland. Globally, the GFC has had a major impact on youth employment and it is no different here in NZ. While I agree with the trend that wealthy youth want to spend time on instagram rather than drive, there are many youth who can’t afford smart phones and who arent being counted in this statistic.
No VKT data – at least as it’s currently measured only seems to go back to 2001. I believe there may have been a change in the way it was calculated then.
Yes you are right it could be that people are simply driving without licences but my guess is it probably isn’t that substantial a number. I would assume that any change would come through in the number of infringements issued for not having a licence. Why don’t you look into that and let us know.
Perhaps this is a factor: http://m.nzherald.co.nz/editors-picks/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503539&objectid=11212619
Yup, I’m trying to find that data from the police, but I’m not sure how specific the data is. Many of the stats are not publically available. I recall up to 60,000 youth were caught in 2010, but thats only the ones that were caught. In South Auckland I have heard some surveys have found well over half of youth were driving without a license. Again, hard to get any stats on this issue as it seems to be particular to poorer parts of Auckland. So its difficult to investigate correlation between GFC,youth unemployment,driver licensing.
Interesting, but remember we could have fewer licences and more driving or more licences and less driving, so while the licence numbers, like vehicle numbers, are interesting, it is the VKT stats that best show the driving trend.
The important thing about the licence data is the idea of generational shift which it could be an indicator of.
Also to bear in mind is the other end of the age scale. From 2011 another year of Baby Boomers hit 65 each year, the nominal retirement age. And us Boomers are the drivingest cohort ever to have lived. We drove more than our parents, and we drive more than our children and grandchildren. No group loves driving so much. And we’re slowly getting off the road.
Driving has peaked in the west.
Patrick don’t disagree,
But don’t the VKT numbers themselves come from WOF and vehicle relicensing data?
And doesn’t this then assume that those unlicensed drivers are driving WOF’ed and licensed cars – and the VKT figures are correct?
Isn’t it more likely that someone driving with no license is also not driving a registered and/or WOF’ed car? (or v.v. – no WOF/Reg = also means no license)
And if so,then there may be an emerging “black market” of under-reported youth-lead driving in some parts of NZ which means the true situation is a little different.
But even so, its hard to argue that driving is still king no matter how you measure it.
But the actual drop off/slow down may not be as great in some.age groups/populations as it appears.
South Auckland has always had large numbers of unlicensed drivers. The increase in the cost of the license process and increase in youth unemployment means this is unlikely to have changed. I am sure the same applies to cars with no rego or WoF.
Nah, the only reason for the drop is the GFC, eh:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/transport/9833763/Weekends-worse-than-rush-hours
“NZTA national journey manager Kathryn Musgrave said traffic congestion dropped off during the recession, from 2009 to 2011.
However, in the past few years traffic levels have been returning to pre-recession levels across the week and weekend.”
At least she ends better:
“There has also been an increase in public transport use in the past few years, she said.
“We are hoping to see a flattening out of car usage and people moving into public transport so the type of congestion we’re getting is no worse off.” “
Well NZTA of all people are in a much better position to do a hell of a lot more than ‘hope’. They can help make it so by investing in Transit systems so they become the rational choice. They, in fact, are mostly doing the reverse; especially in Wellington. Sigh. They seem to be following the braindead line from the MoT that current, or rather previous, mode share is the result of perfect choice.
Hmm, but NZTA’s own traffic data show a continuing drop off/flat line in vehicles driving past key locations e.g. Auckland Harbour Bridge.
So all these “extra” drivers are travelling the back roads so they’re not counted by these systems somehow?
Wouldn’t be the first time NZTA’s systems have failed to pick up a trend, but really, the “GFC excuse” is getting a little old and tired by now.
Even the Reserve Bank – that most conservative body – has officially declared the GFC to be “dead and buried” – by raising the Official Cash Rate last week, signalling the “crisis” for NZ is over.
drivers license in NZ is incredible expensive and so hard to get… 60% of people aprox fail restricted test (not teenagers only) not even mentioning every time you fail you have to pay $88 again. The test is ridiculously hard, even if you put someone with experience behind the wheel they will fail.
Good.
Yeah, actually it’s far too easy to get a licence here. 40% of people get one first time, that doesn’t sound very stringent when there are zero requirements for proper training or logged hours.
Take Germany for example, this is what it takes just to get the restricted:
“To get a regular driver’s license,” Christine explains, “you have to take 14 theory classes and at least 12 driving lessons. Driving schools usually offer them twice a week, so that takes about seven weeks. Depending on how quickly you learn, it can be done in about three months; but it usually takes longer, because of holidays and so forth. You start with the classroom sessions, and then move on to the driving portion, taking them in parallel so you learn the rules and also how to apply them.” How many driving lessons you’ll need to take depends on how quickly you learn. With 12 as the minimum, and 50 on the high end, the full licensing course can cost between EUR 1000-2000.
Which is why so many more get their learners than restricted or full license. They just drive without a license.
People also get a learners with little or no intention of driving at all – but so they can have ID to buy alcohol.
(Yes, there’s 18+ cards, but the learner licence is easier to apply for and many parents are happier paying for a driver licence, since it might get the bloody kids a step closer to learning to bloody drive).
To me that’s fair enough, i will rather pay $2000 but to know I’m getting somewhere and doing exactly what they want. Then the fact that this agency is the only one in control of taking the test? Doesn’t sound dodgy enough? There is ppl who have failed 7 times… That’s a fair bit if money. Look if they ask ppl to enrol in a school and they are in charge of teaching and then they can test you on the go… Perfect! They failed me the first time just because I bumped the car on a kerb very minimal touch… 10 min and all my effort gone! I spent more than $1500 I can say in lessons and time and transport to get to the school…
Doesn’t sound any more dodgy than the Police being the only ones in charge of crime control, NZTA is a government agency. The NZ testing regime is extremely simple in comparison to what is required overseas in many European countries. But the result is that drivers in places like Germany are better trained and safer to be sharing a road with. As for the people that failed the test 7 times, well what can I say, maybe actually open the road code and read it. Of the people I know, all of them walked in and out of the test to get the learner’s licence in 5 mins and the driving test is far from onerous as well. The circumstances you describe of hitting the kerb and being failed sound completely reasonable, you obviously weren’t in control of the car and unaware of what was on the road in front of you. What is that kerb had been a person? At the end of the day driving is a privilege not a right, rather than dumbing down the licensing system to save people money as you seem to be proposing, it should rather be made much more extensive and difficult. Better drivers = safer streets and less cost to society from injuries, deaths and hospital costs.
Teens aren’t “choosing” at all. The greedy National government makes sure it now costs parents nearly $3000 so families can’t afford it on the low wages John Key is determined to keep people on.l,