Rail patronage in Auckland is continuing to close in on Wellington. Metlink were kind enough to update their patronage numbers up to January for me and it revealed some interesting about just how close the two cities now are. Up until the middle of last year there hadn’t been a single month where the Auckland network had carried more passengers than Wellington, the closest we had was in March last year where we were only about 17k trips behind. I had expected that we might have had high patronage in September and October due to the world cup but what I didn’t expect was that we also had higher patronage in August which turned out to be the first time it had ever happened.
Things have slipped back to normal for now but based on the growth each city is seeing I guess it is only a matter of time before the green line below passes the purple one. When that happens I wonder if people will finally realise that rail in Auckland is actually used.
Of course on a per capita basis the Wellington network is still far ahead, for Auckland to be on par with it we would need to be having about 35 million trips per year based on our current population.
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Firstly, the upside. What a huge year 2011 was. Look at that jump from 2010. I can only imagine that 2012 will be at least slightly higher.
On the demand side, oil prices are high again, and the cost of second-hand cars is firming as the mid-90s glut falls off and safety/emissions standards kick in. Supply and quality are slowly improving, and we’ll have a new timetable soon, and hopefully some of the ticketing improvements will be there by end year (but I’ve learned not to expect anything in Auckland).
The tragedy here is how terribly inefficient all our systems are at moving our people with ease, relatively low cost, and low environmental impact. Wellington’s static numbers over the last decade are a travesty – so little has been invested there in the way of improvement. We’re very slowly leaving behind ideas generated in the 1960s and 1970s and sustained since then.
I also have to wonder how pronounced the January dips would be if the entire system wasn’t shut down so regularly, destroying predictability and reliability (yes, I know we’re fixing and upgrading the system and some disruption is necessary).
Next summer should be the last of the regular lengthy closures of the rail system. I think most of the infrastructure works for electrification should be completed in the next holidays – so after that the decline in December & January should be less significant.
I agree that rail patronage growth this year is likely to be less dramatic than last year. We don’t have the World Cup and we are also likely to be hitting capacity constraints at peak times.
Keep in mind that Wellington is still waiting on some more Matangis to complete te fleet overhaul. Also that the population growth in Wellington City has been fairly low compared to Auckland. I would expect the recent infrastructure upgrades and new trains would see patronage growth through 2012. But having said that it is a let down that things havent grown in Wellington as they could have.
The Matangis will help but I think the problem goes deeper than that. The PT market is Wellington is much more mature and I get the feeling that the council has rested on its laurels a bit as the low growth has also been seen on buses as well. On the infrastructure rolling stock side of things remember that Auckland has had huge problems as well but one of the differences that is quite clear is that AT and ARTA before it saw the value of vastly improving what we had rather than just tweaking what existed which is why we now have stations like Newmarket and New Lynn and in future Manukau and Panmure.
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Thanks Andrew, have deleted.
New Zealand public transport costs are outrageously expensive. The obsession with user pays does not strictly apply to public transport. Everyone benefits from public transport including people who never use it. Fewer drivers on the roads mean those who do drive will not be stuck in traffic jams and use less fuel. Also simply knowing there is a service, even if you don’t use it, is a comforting feeling, like knowing there is a fire brigade on hand. Also property owners always advertise ‘close to public transport’ which indicates it has value. Public transport is also very social. Users get exercise to and from stations and mingle with real human beings. On top of that reduced air and noise pollution are plus points. In Bern, Switzerland, a city a similar size to Dunedin there are underground stations, a high speed rail link, trams and electric buses that all make private car ownership redundant. Bus frequency on main routes is every 6 minutes most of the day, but the one reason it is so popular is that it is extremely cheap. The streets of Bern have very little traffic and the lack of cars is very pleasing. Despite the hilly geography of the city bicycle use is common and Bern citizens are noticeably thinner and healthy looking. New Zealand should experiment by cutting public transport costs in half and see the dramatic increase in use it would bring. At the very least they should axe the GST on public transport tickets.
How much GST did Aucklander’s pay on their rail tickets ? Who got the benefit of that tax take ?
How much additional GST do Auckland motorist pay on the fuel used while standing in queues on the motorway. Who benefits from that tax take ?
CRD
I don’t think 35million trips or more per year is totally out of the question for Auckland, even if there were to be no more extensions of the current network. The current network is no where near used as efficiently as it could be, and certainly things should improve after electrification with larger trains. If 6 car trains were running on all the main lines all day everyday, then there is tons of capacity to fill. Some things that could/will help tripple the number of current users are very frequent services, minimum of 15mins during the day and 30mins at all other times for every station. If they can get punctuality for all lines over 90% (which is still not the best by international standards, but a vast improvement on today’s statistics), then that will have a huge perception on the way people view rail in Auckland. I believe with a new signalling system and electrification, 90% is a VERY reachable target and should be easy for them to maintain. So I think a frequent, reliable and with modern stations/trains in Auckland it certainly can happen. People will come in droves if they think it’s fast, frequent and most importantly reliable.