I’m never quite sure whether to be pleased or completely freaked out when something that I largely wrote ends up being discussed in parliament’s question time. Thanks to Peter for pointing out a discussion on the Puhoi-Wellsford Road in parliament yesterday that ended up discussing the “Operation Lifesaver” alternative to the hugely expensive “holiday highway”.
I have a few comments, the first being a bit of a question about what of the figures in Operation Lifesaver are “incorrect”? as he claims. Just about all the figures (perhaps the Warkworth bypass cost was a bit of a guess, but it’s in the ballpark of what the project might cost) actually came from NZTA – so if he’s concerned about their accuracy then I think he Mr Joyce should be worried about the quality of advice he’s receiving.
But I have other questions too:
- Where is he getting the figure of there being 24,000 people driving along parts of the route every day? According to NZTA’s data the busiest section of the road (through Warkworth), carries just over 20,000 vehicles a day. Most of the route carries 10,000 to 15,000 vehicles a day.
- Have traffic estimates for the route considered the possibility that it’s likely to be tolled? Surely that will put off a large number of users from the new road (especially if they have to pay a large toll from Orewa to Warkworth) reducing the number of vehicles benefitting from the time savings the new motorway will bring. That might have a catastrophic effect on its already poor cost-benefit ratio – as this is why Waterview Connection will not be tolled.
One last question I have is how on earth can Puhoi-Wellsford be cost-effective when a study commissioned by NZTA themselves suggests it will provide only a quarter the benefits of the Victoria Park Tunnel project, at four times the price:
While I’m sure the Victoria Park Tunnel project has a good BCR (around 4 to 5 from memory), that would indicate Puhoi-Wellsford’s true cost benefit ratio would be around 0.25.
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It’s obvious that facts which come from the very agency he leads (and elsewhere) are not as important to the Minister as getting his way. It’s unclear whether he petulantly ignores the maths because he has a job to do (building those roads) or because he truly believes they should be built. I suppose it doesn’t matter, really, but watching Mr. Joyce tinker on with this cartoonishly wasteful project (shaking head, eyes closed, fingers in his ears) would be funny if it didn’t matter.
we don’t know where he got the figure of 24,000. We think he just made it up. He does that… Maybe the CBR is higher cos they “assumed” the average speed on the road was 60 km/hour.
I’m actually getting sick of him not being challenged on his stats. He’s also asserted that more people use this road than the entire Auckland urban rail network, which of course is nonsense but it’s sine become “fact” and has been repeated by Lockwood Smith. Why are opposition MPs just accepting whatever numbers he throws out. Are they not doing their own research?
Admin did a post here a couple of months ago that did in fact show that more people used SH1 between Puhoi and Wellsford than traveled on Auckland trains. He took the post down an hour or so later. Maybe it could be reposted?
Josh’s source says that the section of SH1 through Warkworth handles 20,000 vehicles a day. There are plenty of vehicles who enter and exit that stretch of SH1 without going through Warkworth itself. I’d be surprised if the total of Puhoi-Wellsford motorists who didn’t actually enter Warkworth were as small as 4,000, so 24,000 sounds like a low figure. Multiple by (say) 1.5 or so to account for multiple persons per vehicle and you’re easily looking at 35,000 people a day, and maybe 40-50,000 if the 4,000 non-Warkworth figure turns out to be low.
By contrast, there are around 800-900,000 Auckland rail passenger journeys per month, so less than 30,000 a day.
So I don’t think the claim is nonsense.
Many of the vehicles you refer to would continue to use the existing SH1 rather than a new motorway standard road (especially if it’s tolled) so it is nonsense…
You’re absolutely right that they will. But the claim that Cam said was nonsense was that “more people use this road than the entire Auckland urban rail network”, referring to the existing SH1. The figures support Joyce as being almost certainly correct on the matter.
Whether more people use the new motorway than the existing rail system isn’t relevant to anything since that’s comparing apples with oranges.
No more people do use the rail system than the road, 24000 people per day on the road is less than 29000 on the rail network per day in September. On work days this is higher still at around 35000 per day.
Matt… Joyce mispoke. He said 24k persons but the sourced figures from NZTA suggest it is 24k vehicles.
Joyce misspoke when he said the road carries more than rail, misspeaking is something he seems to do often. Even then you would have to have an average of around 1.5 people per vehicle to make that more than the rail network which seems pretty high considering the average for most roads is something like 1.2 is it not? Also my understanding was that traffic levels were at best fairly stable, this is compared to rail which is rapidly rising with double digit growth and is predicted to be double its current usage in about 5 years or so.
Joyce has in the past made wild statements with inaccurate facts to make his point seem better and to try and belittle the opposition then at a future time release a correction to it. The problem with this is that the main stream media pick up the initial statement and the public believe it the correction isn’t reported on or is a small story that people don’t see so people don’t know the truth.
Matt… I’ve looked up all the figures…
The highest rail passenger figures I could find were 918,000 in March 2010. That is an average of 29,600 per day.
From the source Josh used, 21,572 vehicles a day pass “North of Woodcocks Rd”. Using your 1.2 passengers per vehicle figure, that is 25,900 people.
However, there are vehicles that use SH1 between Puhoi and Wellsford that don’t pass “North of Woodcocks Rd”. Such as traffic between Puhoi and Auckland; south of “North of Woodcocks Rd” to Auckland, Puhoi, or farms in the area; and north of “North of Woodcocks Rd” to Wellsford, Whangarei, or farms in the area.
For the claim to be correct, you have to believe that only 3700 people (less than 3,100 vehicles) make any of the listed journeys. There is no way to determine that from the NZTA data, but the chances of this being the case have got to be almost zero.
Conclusion: If Joyce made the claim then he is almost certainly correct. That doesn’t effect the business cases for either rail upgrades or a Puhoi to Wellsford motorway. However, it does mean that claims that Joyce is incorrect on this point and therefore some sort of idiot or a liar are not supported by the evidence.
Obi – 29000 > 25000. Also the 29000 figure uses some basic calculations that doesn’t include less patronage on weekends, luckily for us ARTA indicated the usual weekend patronage in the September stats referring to the free travel offered while the Newmarket viaduct was closed.
For the month there were a total of 893000 trips, take out the 20000 free trips that leaves us with 873000 trips for the month. The report says that the usual weekend patronage is 15000 and there were 4 weekends in the month, take them out and you have 813000 trips on work days of which there were 22 so that means the average weekday usage was almost 37000 people. Do you really expect people to believe that there was an extra 12000 people a day who used the road but didn’t cross the sensor spot?
Matt… I assume that the NZTA road use figures are also averaged out over the month. In fact I suspect that they’re averaged out over the year, whereas March 2010 was a high point for rail and the following two months fell away to a seasonally lower 700,000ish trips. You can’t compare weekend-free rail figures with week-averaged road figures. It also isn’t valid to compare figures averaged out over a year with ones gathered in the busiest month, but I’m too lazy to find and calculate the annual rail passenger numbers and divide by 365. That figure would be much lower than 29,000 per day.
“Do you really expect people to believe that there was an extra 12000 people a day who used the road but didn’t cross the sensor spot?”
It is a 30km route with multiple destinations along the route and a city of over 1 million people not far south of one end point. Not every vehicle using the route traverses the whole 30km. I would be absolutely amazed if less than 3,000 vehicles a day only drove a portion of the route.
Just out of interest… Does anyone have a good reference for the rail passenger figures by month? The ARTA monthly reports only present them in tables and that makes it hard to do anything with the underlying data.
That’s why I took off the extra free trips first, also the figures I used weren’t from the highest month on record and it is worth noting that this year has seen 5 months with figures roughly at or above 800k trips and 3 of those have been the most recently reported months. Dividing the total amount patronage for the year by 365 gives about 24k however you have to remember that the whole network is closed for 2-3 weeks over Christmas, every long weekend and quite a few other weekends for works.
As for the roads figures, yes that is probably averaged out over a period however I don’t think it is over a year, if it was you would have to take out the holiday peaks to equally fair as you also want the special events taken out of the rail figures.
Some digging around finds the following from one of ARTA’s monthly reports: “For the rolling twelve months August 2009 to July 2010 the total number of passengers recorded travelling by rail was 8.554 million passengers, an increase of 11.6% on the equivalent period last year”. That official 23,450 a day is very close to your estimated 24,000, so nicely done.
I don’t see any reason to subtract either holiday motorists or special event rail users (apparently rugby crowds cause Auckland’s busiest rail days) as they’re all valid travelers. Or to make an allowance for periods of rail system unavailability since it is inherent to the system. I think we’ve proved beyond a doubt that SH1 between Puhoi and Wellsford does, without a doubt, carry more passengers than the Auckland rail system. Altho with current growth the claim might not be true in a couple of years time.
“I think we’ve proved beyond a doubt that SH1 between Puhoi and Wellsford does, without a doubt, carry more passengers than the Auckland rail system.”
I don’t get your logic Obi. Matt said that there’s at least 29,000 people using the rail system on average, whereas optimistically there might be 25,000 people a day using SH1 through Warkworth.
The rolling average according to the September report is up to 8.869 million which is 24300 per day however as I said some months the average is up to 29000, it does show that patronage is rising quickly. Also don’t forget that while some vehicle trips might not be calculated, also many rail trips aren’t, head counts are only done at a couple of locations and there are a lot of people who avoid payment, especially if only going one to two stops or if the train is really busy (makes it hard for the staff to get through).
As for issue of not including the shutdowns, I understand your point however remember that once we get electrification finished we will have almost a brand new network as pretty much all of the old tracks and signaling equipment are being replaced. Those shutdowns are to do that work and so the the number of them should reduce with time, also the double tracking is now finished as is the major station construction projects so while there will still be some every year, there won’t be anywhere near as many as there are now.
Peter… To summarise… Matt was averaging out over week days in a peak month. Averaged out over a year the figure is around 23,500 rail journeys a day. Rail is quite seasonal. There are on average 21,500 vehicles a day passing by Warkworth. Multiply that by 1.2 to get passengers (an unproven and unsourced factor, but one that no one has objected to) and you’re already busier than rail. Add in partial-length journeys on SH1, such as people in Puhoi driving in to Albany to hit the shops, or farmers driving in to Wellsford to buy some sheep dip, and you’re removing all doubt.
I’ve simplified Matt’s argument and hope I’ve done it justice. We’ve debated whether football matches, long weekends, and maintenance periods should be included in the figures.
Matt… I’ve got to laugh at including fare dodgers, even tho they are valid system users 😉
You’re almost certainly right that Auckland rail with overtake SH1 P2W traffic once electrification is complete. Probably by a large margin. But I think the original claim was talking about the current situation and that’s the one I’ve addressed.
No he wasn’t. If he used weekdays in a peak month then his total was up near 37,000 a day.
Well since the figure is being used to justify the importance of this road and how it will be more useful than the rail network, the amount of people that’ll actually use it on completion seems to be an “apple” to me…
I don’t see that anyone has used the figure to either justify P2W or to compare its usefulness to the rail system. It is nothing more than an easy-to-understand analogy that shows how heavily used the current road is, as it isn’t built to a high standard but is busier than a network that has multiple lines and rail is usually thought of as an efficient means of moving large numbers of people. Capacity issues at Britomart excepted.
As an aside, I was reading about the use of railways in WW1. I’d always accepted that the efficiency of railways was one reason the war dragged on for so long… defenders would be able to rush men and munitions to the front while attackers would have to support themselves across the muddy road-and-rail-free stretch of no mans land. But it seems that even back then road transport was important… the Allies built new rail lines up to the front at Verdun, but with one truck every 15 seconds heading to the front along the single useful road the trucks transported 75% of the freight delivered. The limiting factor for rail seems to have been deficiencies in the rail marshaling system at the destination, the desire of officers to hang on to arriving trains and use them for storage purposes, and that trucks were easier to build than trains so there was never a shortage of them.
Are you pruposefully being obtuse to try and carry the point..?
Surely very clearly implied in Joyce’s comments asserting more people use the road than the rail network is the message that it is more important and therefore more worthy of funding… When the current vehicle numbers are split between the existing road and the new motorway (which if tolled will further discourage use) this greatly lessens the benefit of the new motorway, i.e less users, less benefit…
No one is arguing here that the road isn’t currently below standard just that “Operation Lifesaver” is the correct response… I have a rule of thumb that when Libertarians and the Green Party object to something, it has be a pretty stupid idea, both groups think this is a massive waste of money – they’re right…
Nothing obtuse here. I watched the clip and there was no mention of road versus rail. That was introduced in to the thread by Cam. If you have a source showing it being used as anything other than an analogy, then I’d love a URL so I can check it out.
The discussion we were having was about Cam’s comment and how Joyce’s comment wasn’t a correct analogy – apples and oranges you called it… The clip really has nothing to do with our discussion and never did…
So I gotta assume obtuse…
Cam did not say that Joyce had made the comparison in order to justify road investment, only that Joyce had made the comparison. You said that “the figure is being used to justify the importance of this road and how it will be more useful than the rail network”. I’d like to see the actual Joyce comment in context which is why I asked for a source.
If asking for a source rather than relying on hearsay is “obtuse”, then I plead guilty. But relying on proper figures and original quotes is better than just asserting things and hoping they are correct, which is what a lot of the comments in this thread are doing… Matt L excepted.
Here is your source http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Business/QOA/1/9/8/49HansQ_20101012_00000004-4-Transport-Funding-Effect-of-Local-Body.htm you can even watch it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ATo2X80Px0&feature=player_embedded
If you don’t want to click those links then here is the relevant part of that discussion.
Dr Russel Norman: Will he consider reprioritising his transport funding by moving money from his “Holiday Highway” into a rail central business district loop, given that the costs are about the same, and given that a large majority of Aucklanders clearly want rail more than they want his new motorway?
Hon STEVEN JOYCE: There are a couple of points there. Firstly, the Pūhoi to Wellsford motorway is, in fact, a multi-regional project between Northland and Auckland; it is not just an Auckland project. Secondly, I again point out to the member that we are spending big sums in the rail area, and I think that that is appropriate. But I should point out to him—as I have, I think, once in the past—just to keep a matter of proportion, that that particular road from Pūhoi to Warkworth currently carries more people per day than are carried on the whole of the Auckland commuter rail network. That just gives some form of proportion on that project
Thanks Matt… I think the “That just gives some form of proportion on that project” supports my recollection that the comparison was made in order to show just how busy the current SH1 is. It certainly doesn’t state that SH1 improvements should be prioritised over rail improvements and specifically mentions government investment in rail projects.
Obi, Joyce says something like that highway carries about 24k people per day. From that, it sounds like he means that that is how many people travel the extent of the highway, whereas it is only the number people using it around Warkworth. Estimates on the through traffic posted here before are more like 15k vehicles. If you count all the people who use any part of the current route at some point during the say, it is probably quite high indeed.
But as you say, comparing that the the current number of rail users in Auckland is neither here nor there.
That’d be like saying that only rail passengers who travel all the way from Pukekohe to Waitakere should be counted. Comparing those to the number of people who drive between Puhoi and Wellsford isn’t going to be close at all.
Stop being such a fool obi. Surely you realse that the vast majority of vehicles travelling along the road would pass through Warkworth – as Warkworth is in the middle of the section.
What’s up with you obi? Do you work for Steven Joyce’s office or something? You always seem to be an apologist for him. Do you really think the holiday highway is a good project and offers excellent value for money?
Really?
Peter… I don’t work for Joyce. I do object to people stating an opinion and using nothing more than that opinion as “evidence” that Joyce is either: 1. Stupid; 2. A liar; or 3: Involved in some sort of corruption involving the trucking industry. Which are assertions that pop up in just about every thread that mentions the government. It’s basically sloppy debate that isn’t worthy of the well researched and written posts that Josh and Jeremy produce. I try and point that out using evidence that I hope proves my point. People like to argue. That’s cool. But if the only response to any post that questions government policy is a sneering comment “That proves that Joyce is an idiot” then it’ll hardly be worth reading the comments.
Your comment that the vast majority of traffic on that section of SH1 passes through Warkworth because it is in the middle could be used to assert that the vast majority of traffic on SH1 as a whole passes through Taupo. We don’t know that and the available evidence isn’t sufficient to prove or disprove it.
As to my opinion on the value for money of Puhoi to Wellsford… I think it all depends on the discount rate used and the ability of Northland to use improved infrastructure to generate economic growth. There seems to be a view that tourism is all Northland is good at, and that the tourism will be mostly restricted to the south of the region. I think this is an underestimation.
Fair points Obi. I certainly don’t think Joyce is stupid – I actually think he’s quite an astute politician, though whether or not that’s a good thing is up for debate!
Putting aside conspiracy theories, and other “pork-barrel” reasons why Joyce might be so keen on this project, I think the only reason why someone who comes across as reasonable as him could support such a project is along similar lines to what you say – that for some reason he thinks shaving 5 minutes off the travel time between Puhoi and Warkworth will somehow revolutionise Northland’s economy. I can’t quite see how such a thing would happen.
Didn’t Admin post an extract from a 2008 study into the route which showed at that time Transit didn’t think the road would make much difference to regional economic growth? That, in theory, would debunk Joyce’s assertion that the project will dramatically transform the economic situation of Northland.
I’m talking about the way he presented the argument in the clip above — the number he produced doesn’t tell us anything about whether or not a new Puhoi-Wellsford road is needed. Neither would saying Britomart has X number of people per day tell us anything about whether or not the Britomart-Waitakere line needs upgrading.
Actually it is good he has finally put a figure on the roads use, remember he is talking about people not cars and some cars obviously have more than one occupant in them. The reason it is good is he has always said the road carries more than the Auckland rail network however we can now prove this to be wrong as the only way the rail network can be less is if you also count all the days it is closed for maintenance like the few weeks over Christmas, even then the figures are about the same.
Joyce is an egg.
Amazing that Joyce, once again, can get the numbers grossly inflated ( and incorrect) for his pet road projects, then gets them incredibly wrong, with lower than corrent numbers for rail or public transport projects.
It would make an interesting blog thread, to keep a running list of all these instances (Joyce’s follies), what he said and when, and a comment or interpretation of the ‘mistake’ in each case.
Well my Dad is going to love this, he’ll be getting some nice fat commission in a few years time. He works for an earthmoving firm based in Silverdale, given the huge amount of cuts and fills they are going to need every grader in the country working on this one.
Not going to happen. For this to happen, ALL the three following things will have to occur:
– National will still have to be in power in 5 years
– The fuel price has to be around today’s level or lower
– The treasury has to be at current levels or better
The only things that I consider as highly likely (but not necessarily) to occur is the last one. The first two have at least a 50% chance of not being true. In my highly scientific assessment (well, it’s at least as good as Joyce’s BCR calculations!) that means Puhour Wellsford will have at most a 25% chance of actually being built.
Thats a comforting thought 🙂
I think 24,000 people comes from 20,000 vehicles x average vehicle occupancy of 1.2 . Which is reasonable I suppose.
@Obi, 29,000 people per day is more than 24,000 people per day. What about that confuses you?
“multiple by (say) 1.5 or so to account for multiple persons per vehicle and you’re easily looking at 35,000 people a day, and maybe 40-50,000 if the 4,000 non-Warkworth figure turns out to be low” you can’t just make numbers up to prove your point.
Matt L asked “the average for most roads is something like 1.2 is it not?”
I have seen several studies with that figure for most first world cities during the peak periods.
The combined peak/off-peak and urban/rural “Mean light 4-wheeled vehicle occupancy (people/km) by region” can be found at:
http://www.transport.govt.nz/ourwork/TMIF/TV010/
The table shows Auckland 1.57 and Northland 1.7