Transport in 2030

A very good article in today’s herald pontificating about where transport is headed over the next 20 years:

Life in 2030: Public transport and battery power set to be way of the future

Electric-bicycle carts for our shopping and sail-assisted cargo ships for our exports are examples of transport innovations needed for New Zealand to survive a looming oil supply squeeze.

Dwindling supplies by 2030 will put pressure on indigenous transport energy sources – notably hydro-electricity, wind power and biofuels – to keep us moving.

Liquid fossil fuels will be increasingly reserved for high-priority uses such as wholesale food distribution, meaning a greater reliance on public transport for longer urban trips and “personal mobility” vehicles such as battery-powered Segways, bikes or small electric cars for neighbourhood errands.

Some overseas capitals will even have driverless electric taxis running along magnetic or laser-guided pathways – as are already being introduced to Abu Dhabi’s new “carbon neutral” Masdar City and London’s Heathrow Airport.

The cost of building dedicated guideways will be too prohibitive for New Zealand to develop such “personal rapid transit” systems over the next 20 years, given the hefty capital needs of expanding rail and busway networks to move larger numbers of people.

Auckland faces tough enough challenges raising the billions needed for the CBD rail tunnel and links to the airport, let alone a third Waitemata Harbour crossing, as its population builds to about 1.8 million by 2030.

But if petrol and diesel get too costly for too many household budgets, there could be plenty of space left on many roads for the addition of lower-cost light rail tracks in the middle for carless commuters.

Wellington “futurist” consultant Robin Gunston says New Zealand should follow the example of many United States cities, led by Portland in Oregon, in providing easements for light rail through motorway corridors.

He says cabling conduits should also be laid under roads when they are resurfaced to provide for future public charging points for electric vehicles, whether they be cars, power-assisted bicycles or Segways.

That is already happening in London, where thousands of small Indian-made electric “G-Wiz” cars are roaming the streets and Mayor Boris Johnson is promising 25,000 public charging points by 2015 to meet European air pollution standards.

Although batteries needed to give electric cars enough range on a single charge remain too costly for most New Zealand households, a report commissioned by power generators Meridian and Contact suggests their prices will drop by around 2024 to about the same as for petrol and diesel vehicles.

The Hyder consulting group report predicts that about 60 per cent of new vehicles entering the New Zealand market will be electric by 2030, as long as there are enough available to import, even without Government incentives such as a new four-year exemption from road user charges.

That date could be brought forward to about 2025 with some form of Government intervention, for a net estimated “present value” benefit to the economy from electric cars over 50 years of more than $8.5 billion.

But although the report predicts 30 per cent of the vehicle fleet will be electric by 2030, Green Party transport and climate change spokeswoman Jeanette Fitzsimons doubts there will be many second-hand versions available by then for average households.

Meanwhile, she says even the International Energy Agency agrees oil will be “in serious decline” by 2030, very expensive and not readily available for private consumption.

Ms Fitzsimons predicts only modest biofuel supplies by then, which may have to be reserved for vehicles such as trucks delivering food to supermarkets “which is probably the first thing to cause complete social chaos if oil is not available”.

“One thing I can predict is, whether we build facilities for them or not, a lot more people will be cycling in 2030 and they’ll be healthier for it,” she said.

She also sees sail-assisted ships as essential for carrying Kiwi goods to distant markets and helpful for combating consumer resistance to products with high “food miles”.

German company SkySails is already equipping merchant and fishing vessels with high-flying 160sq m kites for fuel savings of 10 per cent to 15 per cent and is working on cutting energy consumption by up to 50 per cent.

Mr Gunston is more optimistic about the development of electric vehicles, which he believes will be hastened by the necessity of dwindling fossil fuel supplies, but agrees personal private transport over long distances will become increasingly unaffordable.

That will heighten the importance of public transport, although he believes an enduring human desire for freedom of movement will see a range of small vehicles being used for short trips of up to 10km, possibly including motorised skateboards or even personal jetpack hovering machines for the better off.

Difficulties in distributing liquid fuels are also likely to see rural communities growing and refining their own biofuel crops for local transport needs, while fuel costs are likely to put air travel out of bounds for many people.

I think the fact that the global recession led to oil prices declining significantly in 2008, and generally staying low throughout last year, has made a lot of people forget about the tremendous impact that peak oil is likely to have on transportation.

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