Whilst I realise Transmission Gully is in Wellington, and not Auckland, I think the decision today to proceed with the Transmission Gully Motorway project – even though its cost-benefit ratio is around 0.3-0.5 – has some pretty big implications for wider transport decisions throughout the country. Here’s the news story in full:
Transmission Gully to go ahead in $2.2bn upgrade
The long-awaited Transmission Gully route is to go ahead as part of a $2.2 billion upgrade of State Highway 1 from Wellington to Levin.
Transport Minister Steven Joyce this morning confirmed the project would go ahead as one of the Government’s roads of national significance.
Also announced was a NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) plan to upgrade SH1 between Wellington and Levin to reduce congestion, improve safety and support economic growth.
The upgraded route from Wellington Airport to Levin was expected to save drivers between 23 and 33 minutes during peak times and between 17 and 23 minutes during the day.
Mr Joyce said Transmission Gully had been debated for decades, but now a decision and funding plan had been made.
“The Government’s decision to invest nearly $11 billion in new state highway infrastructure over the next 10 years will ensure funding is available for the gully project.”
Tolling may be used to bring construction forward.
“The gully route is the best long-term option for the State Highway 1 road of national significance between Wellington and Levin in terms of route security, journey time savings and minimising impact both during construction and in the longer term,” Mr Joyce said.
“Proponents of the coastal route generally support it because of perceived lower costs. However the latest cost estimates show a similar cost profile between the two options with bypasses at Pukerua Bay, Plimmerton and Paremata being particularly costly because of the built-up nature of those areas, and the widening of Centennial Highway also being problematic.”
Mr Joyce said an important factor in NZTA decision-making was the need to minimise the impact on existing communities.
“Transmission Gully will bring benefits to the coastal communities of Mana, Plimmerton, Pukerua Bay and Paekakariki through reduced community severance and traffic noise, as well as improved air quality.”
Transmission Gully would also provide an improved east/west connection, with a better and more direct link to State Highway 58, the Hutt Valley and the Wairarapa.
The Gully option also provided an alternative route out of Wellington in the event of a major earthquake or other disaster.
“Progressing the Coastal Route would have meant putting all our eggs in one basket.
“Make no mistake, at about a billion dollars this is a very expensive project, so the project is likely to need both the government funding and tolling. The geography of the area means that there are no cheap or easy options.”
What I find most interesting in this matter is the fact that basically, because the Wellington to Levin route has been identified as a “Road of National Significance” it no longer has its funding dependent on whether NZTA’s detailed evaluation of the project’s costs and benefits shows that it will be “worth the investment”. As outlined above, back in June Steven Joyce conceded that the project’s cost-benefit ratio was around 0.3-0.5, which means that for the whole $2.2 billion of investment we’re unlikely to see any more than $1 billion of economic return.
In other words, we just flushed around a billion dollars down the toilet. The precedent this sets for other Roads of National Significance is quite extraordinary.
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transmission gully is a different situation to many roading
projects discussed on this site. I have been a very anti-road
person on here too ,but to be honest this transmission gully should have been built 30 years ago. first of all..it is a motorway between cities, not within one.
then if you look at the way the current sh1 destroys the
possible positivespace of the current area there..eg plimmerton
etc…it’s really sad. deaths aplenty on the current route.
also unlike auckland..there is an excellent rail system already
in place..that most users will probably continue to use.
To much to rwite about on this topic but please shoot me down and debate!
The merits of the project aside, I agree with jarbury, it would seem that National have an agenda of roading projects that they will make sure will go ahead regardless of what anyone says. I just wonder what their motivation is behind it all, if I were to be a gambler I would bet that National has a lot of party supporters to pay back after all these years in opposition and they’re doing their best to blow most of NZ’s income on keeping their road construction buddies flush with our cash.
A lot of what has been funded is actually motorways within wellington including doubling the Victoria tunnel and roading capacity out to the airport and flyovers through the Basin area.
On the otherhand, there aren’t any plans to, for instance, build a railway connection to the airport whilst doing this motorway out there.
Jonathon, I don’t necessarily disagree with you in terms of the merits of the Transmission Gully motorway. Honestly I don’t know enough about the situation to make a judgement there.
However, for me the more important matter is how the government is over-ruling the checks and balances in the system (ie, cost-benefit analyses) to build roading projects that are incredibly expensive. The other issue, as rtc points out, is that much of this wider Road of National Significance is within the urban area. The potential effects on the Basin Reserve cricket ground are horrible.
Couple of thoughts.
The Bad:
It’s a hell of a lot of money to be spending on a project with such low projected benefits.
I would rather the money be spent on Auckland as there has been a historic underinvestment in infrastructure up here while Auckland subsidised the rest of the country.
Did I mention it was a hell of a lot of money?
The good:
Forgetting the cost, it makes sense not to have the countries main road going along a windy coastal route.
It means there likely to more money in the kitty for other projects if enough public support can be gathered behind them (just need to get CBD rail tunnel, airport line and SAL considered railways of national importance)
At least they are talking of tolling it
It is a shedload of money being spent, half of which is a new road north, bypassing the coastal communities in Paramata (which one hopes the current 4 lane road through will be reduced back to 2), the 50km zone through the residential area of Pukerua Bay, avoid the coastal highway, which is limited to 80kph for safety reasons.
There’s other funding for a duplicate terrace tunnel, which is currently 1 lane south through (from a 3 lane motorway). This bit has had chronic bottlenecks since the late 80s. The entire route from the start of the Urban motorway changes from 3 lanes, to 1 lane (tunnel), (2 lanes through the city), 1 lane (through Mt Vic tunnel to Kilbirnie, and back out to 2 lanes towards the Airport).
The area around the Basin will change, and it’ll be visible from one side of the ground, but what’s the alternative? Not sure going underground will be viable, as there’s some rather steep grades to deal with.
Would a rail link to the Airport, help with moving the freight
It’s a much needed route, however I do agree with Matt L that the money would be better spent in Auckland, Auckland for years have been subsidising the rest of the country and are still not getting a ‘fair’ percentage of investment. In saying that it is a roading project that need to go ahead at some point, and I do like how this government gets things done.
I hope however that they mitigate the effects the motorway will have on the basin reserve, this should be protected in the plan as it is a historical place.
How many new State Highways have been constructed in the Wellington region compared to Auckland recently Joshua?
So i’m confused, does this mean Joyce has good cost benefit ratios are no longer an important factor in deciding what transport projects get funded? Or does that just apply to public transport projects?
@camBennt I think they only apply to projects he doesn’t want to fund, otherwise they’re ignored, it took them one year of computer simulations to realise there was no way to fiddle the numbers to make it higher for this project.
@subria my understanding is that a lot of freight has to travel by road due to tunnel constraints coming into Wellington on the rail. If this was really about optimising freight movement such a project would include increasing these tunnels, this was actually planned to be done under Labour but I think it was dropped by National. And in regards to the airport motorway, well 99% of users will be people catching flights and if you’re spending such a vast sum on a road, it should also include a PT component from the start.
Absolutely Cam, Len Brown said at the CBT meeting that Joyce is always smugly asking for the business cases of PT projects… Seems for all his bluster about being an economic guru he doesn’t really give a s**t as long as it’s a road…
The really scary thing for Auckland is after the years study of Puhoi to Wellsford ending next year and the similar 0.3 BCR, we can expect him to announce it while telling us there is no funding for the CBD rail tunnel…
@subria I’d be glad that Wellington hasn’t had any built, but it would seem that it’s their turn to be turned into a sprawling mini-Auckland through continual motorway expansion.
I’m confused with the tolling proposal for Transmission Gully. Joyce has said it will be $3 per trip which won’t pay for anything. If you subtract the cost of setting up a whole new system and the collection costs in 2020- I suspect it will likely be cost negative to have a tolling system. Unless of course, they have plans for other tolled roads. Remember the Puhoi extension to SH1 costs $1.20 per vehicle in collection costs and this road is a lot longer and presumably will have extra interchanges.
He’s also said it will likely to be a PPP. how will they be compensated? Presumably out of the LT fund, but what happens if oil becomes so pricey that revenue starts dropping? If they are going to rely upon new technology for vehicles, presumably they will have to tax that as well?
Subria Im talking about monetry investment from the government in infrastructure compared to the amount of money the government gains from the rerospective cities. e.g. the percentage of tax money that comes from Auckland compared to the percentage of Infrastructure money spent in Auckland Infrastructure does not add up big time.
I hope that clears up you understanding and awakens your views.
Cam, it’s quite simple – BCR’s are the be-all-and-end-all for projects that aren’t Roads of National Significance. The assessment framework for the 09-12 NLTP states that to receive a rating of “high” for Economic Efficiency a project must have a BCR higher than 4. To get a rating of “low” it must be greater than 1. However “Benefit cost ratio lower than 1 will only be considered for funding in exceptional circumstances and at the discretion of the NZTA Board”. RoNS are apparently exceptional. Good luck to Councils trying to get a PT scheme with a BCR less than 1 through the system!
@rtc – increasing the capacity of the rail line along the coastal highway area where the tunnels will be rather expensive, which I’d say would be about the cost of TG itself. If and when freight capacity does increase, it will start to have an impact on the passenger frequency as well, since they share the same line.
Joshua – of course Auckland generates a whole lot of tax money, don’t deny that. But if you say there’s underinvestment in infrastructure in Auckland, then it’s chronic underinvestment in infrastructure elsewhere. Auckland has been getting some of the minimal amount, while other main centres get hardly any of the minimal.
Take it you’ve never had to travel through the Terrace tunnel during peak, or a Saturday morning then? Or tried to get round the Basin during peak flows
Well this is the situation we are stuck with for the next decade. $100 million goes to land aquisition and planning for a projects with no BCR, the chances of building the CBD rail tunnel are talked down before a BCR is even completed and a project which apparently returns about 30 to 50c for every dollar invested gets billions thrown at it.
Yes Cam simply put Steve Joyce is a crazy
@subria “But if you say there’s underinvestment in infrastructure in Auckland, then it’s chronic underinvestment in infrastructure elsewhere. Auckland has been getting some of the minimal amount, while other main centres get hardly any of the minimal.”
That is simply not true. I remember seeing something a few years back showing that over the last 30 years (or something long like that) only 20-30% of the entire transport budget has been spent on Auckland. In the same time, Auckland generated about 40% of the money used for this. The reality is I think a lot of it has gone into south island roads, especially the main tourist ones as they seem vastly superior to the north islands (wide, smooth, fairly straight etc)
@subria – I think the labour government over the last few years has been thinking like you and ignoring the facts.
I have mixed feelings on the anouncement, which covers far more than just Transmission Gully (I agree Transmission Gully is better than nothing, though would prefer improved rail acces to the Kapiti Coast (a fair portion of the Paraparaumu line is still single track) and perhaps upgrading the coastal route. The sandhills expressway and Otaki bypass are quite worthwhile projects. As for the Terrece and Mt Victoria Tunnel duplications they are in stage 3 of the project and unlikely to start within the next 10 years.
About the “motorway between cities, not within one” this is technically true, but a fair number of people commute from the Kapiti Coast into Wellington. A good comparison is the Albany-Orewa motorway extension built 10 years ago.
Now for all those Aucklander whinging about there has been a “historic underinvestment in infrastructure up here while Auckland subsidised the rest of the country.” lets do some maths.
Big road or rail projects in Auckland over last 10 years, under construction or will probably be built in next 10 years:
Alpurt B2 $360m
Mt Roskill SH20 extension $200m
Central Motorway junction improvements $70m
Victoria Park Tunnel $400m
Highbrook Drive extension (East Tamaki)$44m of government funding
Hobsonville Deviation and Bingham crrek extension $220m
SH20 Southwestern motorway southern extension to Manakau $210m
Now the biggie: Waterview connection $1.13bn (and this is optimistic)
SH16 widening $860m
AMETI $1.33bn
Total roads $4.7bn, plus (for public transport)
Britomart $200m
Northern Busway $294m
Project DART $600m
Rail electrification $1bn
New Auckland total $6.8bn aprox
Now for Wellington
New trains and other rail improvements $500m
Dowse to Petone upgrade $60m
Muldoons corner improvements $20m
Te marua Hill SH2 upgrade $20m
Parramatta-Plimertion upgrade ? almost definately under $30m
Plimerton-Pukerua bay 4 laning $10m
Otaki bypass and Waikanae-Otaki 4 laning $355m
Sandhills expressway $500m
Basin Reserve flyover $36m
Mgauranga-Aotea Quay 8 laning $30m
Transmission Gully $1bn
Total cost $2.6bn aprox
Auckland region population 1.3m
Wellington region population 0.4m (less than a third of Auclands.
we may get more transport funding per apita, but only slightly more (and this may not be the case if we were to use the cities 2020 populations instead of their 2006 ones.
In Christchurch they have got almost nothing in the 90s and gets only $76m for their Southern motorway extension (plus $20m for 4 laning a small bit of SH1 on the city outskirts now). And they have more people and a faster population growth rate than Wellington. Feel sorry for them.
Nicholas, you have included several items on your list that were or are wholy council funded projects, for example AMETI at $1300 million (this is over 20 years by the way, not ‘within the next ten years’), Britomart at $200 million paid by Auckland City Council ratepayers and $100 million of the busway cost paid by the North Shore City Council. If you take these out then that leaves around $5.2 billion of national funding spent in Auckland over the 20 odd year period. In comparison I’m not sure what from your Wellington list is locally funded and which is state funded.
There are definitely some inequalities here. How is it that Wellington a city of 480,000 people gets half a billion on a platter for new trains but Auckland with 1,380,000 people has to struggle to get anything, and then is limited to an arbiratry one billion?
If you want to split hairs the projected population for Auckland in 2020 is 1.7 million, it will have grown by just under Wellington’s population in ten years. Meanwhile Wellington will be up to 540,000.In the next ten years Auckland will need to build the equivalent of Wellington’s entire transport system just to stop slipping backwards, let along make headway.
Historically Auckland has not recieved it’s share of national transport funds, while it is coming closer to that now it also has a huge amount of growth to account for. In a sense Wellington also gets short changed, along with other large centres, as the sparsly populated regional areas demand well more than they can afford in order to maintain their contribution to the economy.
Ha, exactly what I was thinking Nick R, except rural areas contribution to the GDP is actually higher per capita than us city dwellers…
@subria sorting out the paekakariki railway tunnels will cost about $200 million for full double tracking, or $100 million for a partial operation. So nowhere near the cost of transmission gully. That project, as well as railway electrification to Otaki, with 15min frequency all day would cost about a quarter of the cost of this project, delivering much better results for a city that wants to be sustainable.
With regard to the project in the city area, I don’t think the airport alone has enough traffic to justify needing a two-lane motorway serving it. Therefore improved trolley bus services, such as frequency and route increases could cut out the need for the wellington tunnel improvements, which cost about $500 million.
However I am somewhat resigned to this project going ahead now, but I certainly do think the whole route should be tolled, and a range of other measures to lock in the benefits undertaken, as per your post about the Waterview Connection last week.
It takes maybe 15 minutes to get from Wellington to the airport, 30 in rush hour – WTF do we need road “improvements”?
With motorways on either side, all this will do is pour more car commuters into our urban community (unopposed by the local Green councillors, I suspect).
Also, I don’t quite get how this is a motorway between cities – it’s a motorway to Levin, then you’ve got at least 9 hours of two-lane SH1 to Hamilton. Even the Nats will never justify an Auckland-Wellington motorway, so knocking off 20 minutes at either end seems a bit pointless. The only people it will serve is car commuters – and by the time it’s complete, most inhibitants of the outer edge suburbs won’t be able to afford the petrol to commute to Wellington any more.
Well summed up Rich, don’t forget we’ve added $2.2 billion to our National debt to get to that situation…
Interesting point there Jeremy. Are these RoNS funded out of the NLTF or does the money come from the general crown accounts (borrowing in other words). Can’t see all this money coming out of the NLTF, unless they totally kill all minor roading improvements.
Yes the money comes out of the NLTF. How are they funding it? Well, cutting back on everything except building new motorways, plus slapping on a 6c a litre additional petrol tax. More info here: http://greaterakl.wpengine.com/2009/05/19/government-takes-us-back-to-the-60s/
The point is we are borrowing $9 billion a year (the Treasury estimates change every other week) for the next few years… All spending should be very carefully managed and spending money on a road that doesn’t even cover it’s costs isn’t my idea of good spending…
Indeed Jeremy, that’s $2.2 billion that can’t be spent on more sensible transport projects.
Even if they used it to “call in” Waterview and speed it up I’d be happier at least it has a high BCR (no matter the flaws in the BCR system) mainly because it needs to be hurried up to be finished at the same time as the rest of the ring route…
This transmission gully route is poor (despite the Minister’s protestations the coastal route has a higher BCR) and if anything should be built with surplus money after we have repaid some debt, where we are projected to return in 6 – 10 years…
Looking at BCRs and public transport in Auckland, I was thinking today that part of the problem is we split all of our transport projects up into little bits, CBD tunnel, Airport line, Howick/Botany line etc, when looking at each one individually it is harder to make a case for as individually they are each impacted by the other projects in the greater plan not being completed. If we were able to have all projects completed at around the same time we might get greater overall benefits than breaking them down to little pieces (evidence of this is Britomart which saw an increase in train use until people realised that the rest of the network was still s**t)
Something similar may have happened with this project. Transmission Gully by itself wasn’t high but the total BCR for all improvements was better (although in this case I think it is unlikely).
It will be better methinks…
Generally it’s little bottle-neck projects that have the best BCRs, while big and expensive stuff struggles. I can sort of see the thinking behind the roads of national significance in that it makes sense to be “proactive” rather than “reactive” in terms of providing infrastructure before it is desperately required.
However, I think that the wrong projects have been chosen. Surely if you wanted one transport project to provide a significant economic boost to an important area you would go with the Auckland CBD rail tunnel.
@admin totally agree. The concept behind seperating out significant transport projects that don’t stack up to a traditional BCR is good. It’s just that Joyce (IMHO) is currently using his powers for evil, not good. Joshua, maybe you (or we collectively) could throw together your own version of RoNS – Transport Projects of National Significance (TPoNS?)?
Ex-commenter Liberty Scott’s take on the project: http://libertyscott.blogspot.com/2009/12/think-big-hits-wellington.html
R.Lin – in terms of public transport projects of National Significance – I guess the CBD rail tunnel, rail to the airport, better PT connections between Wellington airport and its CBD, the Panmure-Botany-Manukau RTN route…. surely a few others?
When the hard left AND the hard right oppose an idea, it’s gotta be pretty stupid…