It seems timely to talk a bit about carbon dioxide emissions, as the government is currently undertaking consultation on what New Zealand’s 2020 target should be in terms of reducing our CO2 emissions when compared to 1990 levels. There has been a big push for a dramatic 40% reduction target, as that is what is considered necessary to avoid the worst effects of climate change, although it is likely the government is going to end up on something a bit more modest. While having a more modest target would be a disappointment, I think in some ways a more critical question is “how are we going to achieve any reduction?”
Since 1990 New Zealand’s gross CO2 emissions (that is, everything we pump out) have increased quite significantly. However, due to a lot of tree planting in the 1990s our net emissions (gross emissions minus the amount of CO2 trees can suck out of the atmosphere) is about level. However, to actually decrease our net emissions by anything substantial in the longer-term, it will be necessary to reduce our gross emissions. And this is where things get tricky. New Zealand’s CO2 emissions largely come from three sources: agriculture, power generation and transport. It is notoriously difficult to reduce CO2 emissions from agriculture without reducing food production – certainly something we wouldn’t want in a world with a growing population. Steps will have to be taken to find ways to reduce agricultural emissions, but they are a while away yet. Regarding power generation, while we can certainly do more to reduce these emissions by investing in renewable energy generation and taking pressure off our backup coal and gas stations, we actually do pretty well when comparing with other countries internationally. This means that our ability to significantly reduce emissions from power generation are somewhat limited (as already 70% or so of our electricity is renewably generated).
Which leaves transport. Over the past 18 years emissions from transport have gone horribly in the wrong direction. According to the Ministry of Economic Development:
“Emissions from national transport continue to account for the largest share of total energy emissions. National transport emissions have grown by 64% since 1990 at an average growth rate of 2.8% per annum, although this has slowed in recent years. Emissions from road transport account for the largest share of national transport emissions at 90%. This represents 38% of the total energy carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for New Zealand.”
So transport is a significant problem. But short of completely overhauling our entire transport system, what can we actually do about this? Well, trends in the last year provide some interesting insights into that:
Road transport emissions, however, dropped in 2008 for the first time since the energy greenhouse gas emissions series began. This is likely to be due to high petrol and diesel prices in 2008 and the beginning of the global recession.
While obviously we don’t want to encourage recessions as ways in which to reduce transport-sector CO2 emissions, the telling aspect is that to reduce our emissions we need to get cars off the road, and that pricing (in the form of higher fuel prices) is a way in which to achieve this. Now obviously it would be enormously unfair to simply price people off the road without providing them with alternatives – which is why it is so essential for public transport to be heavily invested in over the next few years in particular. We will end up with some sort of emissions trading scheme to provide incentives to reduce our emissions and encourage planting forestry. This scheme will add to the price of petrol, potentially quite significantly in the longer term. Therefore, we need to provide people with effective alternatives to driving so that we can reduce our transport sector emissions without having enormous social inequity outcomes of people simply not being able to afford to undertake their daily activities.
Of course this goes against absolutely everything Steven Joyce has said about transport since he became the Minister. I wonder if he ever does talk to Nick Smith, the Minister for Climate Change Issues?
One particularly interesting aspect of the transport sector emissions is the significant contribution that diesel makes – even though the number of petrol cars on the road is hugely greater than the number of trucks. This is evident in the picture below:
Just one more reason to focus on shifting freight to rail, which is far more efficient, rather than allowing even bigger trucks on our roads.
What percentage of the 41% that is diesel emissions comes from diesel trains..?
I don’t share you’re optimism when it comes to renewable power generation, renewable power is now at 66% of production share and has been DROPPING year on year, it was 91% in 1975… Almost all new plants consented are thermally generating plants… Our energy sector emissions will go up unless we get really serious about renewable energy which is not currently going to happen (Gerry Brownlee is the Energy version of Steven Joyce and transport)…
This reduction in renewable energy production share is a national disgrace considering our wind farms are 25 – 50% more productive than European equalivalents, we are one of a handful of countries that can build geothermal plants will minimal drilling, our hydro reserves are huge, we have a coast line almost the same length as America for wave generation, our largest city is in the north where Solar will be effective…
Yes electricity generation trends are an embarrassment – although remember that Australia is 80% coal. So we do well by that comparison!
The problem is that we really struggle to build more hydro due to environmental reasons (quite justifiably so too), and most other renewables are not baseload. Geothermal is the exception, and I certainly hope we roll out a LOT more geothermal plants in the next decade or two. There is also enormous potential for tidal power generation in Cook Strait (enough power for the whole country potentially apparently).
In terms of diesel, only a tiny proportion of that would be from trains.
I do hope Nick Smith os right on the RMA ammendment bill, i.e. that renewable power plants will be approved easier, if this bonehead legislation is going to go through it would be nice to get SOME benefits…
Hmmm, I disagree a bit with other greenies on the hydro issue, sediment bypass tunnels can reduce the some of the effects common in current dams and I’d rather have some river issues than a planet 5 – 10 degrees C hotter…
The most exciting geothermal development I have seen, more for worldwide than NZ is:
http://www.potterdrilling.com/
I hope they are only a few years away from being very rich and geothermal power replacing almost all thermal plants (no need to buy coal or gas if the earth heats up the water for you..!)… Added to the developments in concrete production with low emissions, if we can find ways to make steel low emission and agriculture, we may be able to keep living up to our current standards… Then all thats left is to legislate energy effiency on existing buildings, start to base our transport system on renewable electricity and make all new buildings net zero energy and hope we can get emissions under control before its too late…
Oh no, I’ve gone crosseyed…
And I forgot a zero waste society, just when you think it doesn’t look any harder…
I think alot about that that list of Bill Gates about the reality of life and it has things like, “Your grandparents had a word for burger flipping, they called it oppurtunity” and “Before you go moan about how your parents have destroyed the planet, try delousing the closet in your bedroom”, well thanks Bill time for the children to at least try and save the planet (messy closet and all)…
Nick Smith’s RMA reforms don’t really make any difference to getting consent for renewable energy plants. There was already the ability to have a project “called in” – just what happened to Contact Energy’s proposal for a huge wind farm between Port Waikato and Raglan. I think it was consented within a year – pretty good for something of that size.
Thats amazing considering its taking a decade for a supermarket in Auckland..!
That Pak N Save is now open 😉
Nobody wants to do anything to upset the apple cart, but it is just that approach that is carrying us headlong into more environmental woes. The idea of having major reforms to the energy producing and transport sectors forced by government is for some reason unacceptable in the West, yet I suspect history will judge that as having been necessary.