Back in June I posted about station boarding data from 2003 to 2010 that Auckland Transport had kindly sent to me. While the 2011 data shouldn’t be too far away, it’s worth undertaking a bit of an analysis of the 2003 to 2010 information. Here’s the basic numbers:
Taking 2003, 2007 and 2010 as three useful time-points over the eight years (which also helpfully means we avoid the Newmarket split in 2008 and 2009) we get some interesting information when applying a bit of analysis – and breaking down the network into its various parts (Britomart & Newmarket, inner southern, eastern, far-southern and western):
Because the eastern line started from such a low base, many of its stations stand out as having the highest percentage growth rates between 2003 and 2010. Two other things which are interesting to note is how little patronage growth there has been on the inner-southern section in more recent times, as well as how the big gains in Western Line patronage have come since 2007 (and the 2011 data will most likely show a big jump in this again as most months recently have shown around 30% growth from 2010).
What the data does highlight are a few stations which have somehow avoided enjoying much patronage increase at all. The table on the left sorts the worst performers by the number of additional passengers from 2003 to 2010, while the one on the right does the same thing but percentage wise:
In my mind the numbers above probably lead to a few conclusions. Firstly, that a diesel shuttle trains from Waitakere to Swanson is probably unnecessary and you could serve that route (once the electric trains come online and only go as far as Swanson) by a feeder bus for a fraction of the cost. Secondly, Te Mahia station is located terribly and should be shifted (probably in conjunction with moving Takanini north a bit so we can have a station serving Addison). And finally, once the electric trains are based as a depot in Wiri, one would imagine that Westfield would be able to close completely, helping to speed things up a little bit more.
At the other end of the spectrum, it’s interesting to look at which stations have performed the best, both in terms of numerical and percentage increase, since 2003:
Because the Eastern Line was coming off such a low base, just about every station on that line falls within the top 10 for percentage gains, which is somewhat surprisingly led by Pukekohe (I guess it didn’t have many services at all in 2003). Britomart is obviously a country-mile ahead of any other station in terms of numerical increase.
Once I get the 2011 data I’ll run a bit of an analysis again.
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AWhatUp Pukekohe…. 1050% on the back of that we should be pushing for services that run even later…..
I completely agree about Waitakere and is something I have thought for a long time. We are about to spend millions to build a third platform at Swanson to keep diesel shuttles out of the way of the electrics and that will be only the tip of the iceberg, how much more will we be paying just to operate those services? I imagine the fuel bill alone will rack up some serious costs and thats before you consider the extra maintenance, staff costs etc. There has of course been talk of extending that train to Huapai but I’m not convinced that it would do enough to justify the expense.
AT really needs to make some of the hard calls that are needed, they may be unpopular but doing so could help to free up some much needed resources
I’m also really keen to see the 2011 numbers, I think they are done in May so I imagine AT will have them.
Have heard that Swanson won’t have a third platform, just an extended city-bound platform. So hopefully the costs won’t be too great.
Swanson’s patronage numbers are surprisingly low. I guess there’s not a huge amount of housing around it?
It’s quite spread out around Swanson. I think the addition of some park’n ride would be a good tester.
….additional parking was what I meant. The current car park is full every day.
I believe the car park was recently extended or is in the works (according to the AT business reports I have seen)
There were originally plans to expand the Swanson park and ride, but that was turned down in favour of expanding the Waitakere park and ride.
I wonder what the typical patronage of an established, hourly-or-so shuttle to Huapai or Waimauku would be? I seem to recall that the patronage for the once-a-day Helensville train was reasonable, certainly higher than the sample day data. Not enough to justify running a loco-hauled unit by a long shot, but a DMU maybe.
Also this is in the news section on the CAF website about the trains:
– Passenger counting system to provide KiwiRail with the exact number of carried passengers as well as the number of alighting and boarding passengers in each station
We can say that integrated ticketing will give us another level of detail again and once the new trains come onboard AT will be getting some really accurate numbers for how well stations are being used (plus be able to see easily see where people are trying to fare evade)
Interesting to see how many of the most busy stations are in South Auckland. I wonder if that is because the bus services are so slow if you are coming from the far South?
I think you’re probably right Lucy. Furthermore, historically the area south of Otahuhu was the only place to have a half-decent service with 15 minute frequencies even back when our train system was rubbish.
I would be very interested if anyone knew how to get hold of old timetables (anything before 2005)- to see just how far our things have come, and to compare frequency of services to patronage.
The Swanston people have continually opposed any new husing in their neck of the woods, but expect money invested in their train service. If the service out tehre gets down graded they have only themselves to blame.
Topcat, the main objection at Swanson is to the Penihana block, south of the railway and outside the current MUL. The Ranges Protection bill limited development in the foothills, but it still permits many 10-acre blocks to be subdivided to 5-acres. And there are a lot of sections that haven’t been built on. The biggest land owner around Swanson is Neil Homes, and they have just finished Lake Panorama and have Babich Hills to complete before they get serious about developing further west. Several other subdivisions in the area have stalled since the housing market cooled.
The big limiters to patronage growth are the lack of parking at Swanson (the land earmarked by Waitakere City was required for the third platform), and the half-hourly services from Waitakere (although it still needed additional parking).
Waitakere was also badly affected by service disruptions during the double tracking, and that drove a lot of riders away. The 41% growth 2007-2010 is close to the average 50% growth for the western line. Any shuttle service really needs to go to Waimauku to get enough patronage, and since the money has already been spent on the station, why not use it!
Waimauku or at least Kumeu. That would assist with getting more cars of the motorway at rush hour.
“and since the money has already been spent on the station, why not use it!”
Not sure that “We have already spent money, so we should spend more.” is a good reason to do ANYTHING (though well known as a psychological fallacy we all subscribe to, whether or not we realise it). Don’t do half-assed things though – either cut the service, or run at least 15-minute services during the peak.
If there are 1316 boardings at Middlemore, is that telling us that there a lot of people getting on there and commuting to te city and elsewhere, or is it telling us that there are a lot of people boarding elsewhere and getting off at Middlemore, for the hospital and Kings College? Although you would assume it to be mostly the latter, it isn’t clear here. (Or I’ve failed to understand the information).
With electronic ticketing we’ll finally get some detailed information, including the spread of demand during the day.
At a guess I would say that Middlemore’s usage would largely be people travelling there as a destination.
Oh, definitely. I just wanted to highlight that point, because the assumption it’s easy to make is that daily ‘boardings’ represent people boarding at a location and going elsewhere. That clearly isn’t the case.
Will data from the A pass for rail boarding be available – does any one know? I realise the numbers are not huge, but interesting none the less for confirmed journeys on the rail side of the PT system.
How would one best go about obtaining the 2011 and 2012 figures, both of which have been finalised?
@Geoff send them a LGOIMA request. Try http://www.fyi.org.nz to make it easy and public!