In a media statement, Warkworth resident and cycling advocate Bevan Woodward has questioned the time-savings benefits (all five to seven minutes of them) promised by the Puhoi-Warkworth section of the “holiday highway”. Here’s his whole statement:
Puhoi to Warkworth motorway time savings unrealistic
Warkworth based transport planning consultant Bevan Woodward has been studying the travel time savings claimed by NZTA for the Puhoi to Warkworth motorway.
Mr Woodward advises: “A slow trip from the tunnel to Warkworth currently takes 13 minutes. That’s an average speed of 78 km/h to travel the 17 km, but in my experience most trips are quicker than this – even during week day peak hour. The only time it’s slower is during summer holiday congestion.”
“For a 5 minutes travel time saving, the new 18 km motorway would have to be driven in a time of 8 minutes, this equates to a highly unrealistic speed of 135 km/h.”
In addition Mr Woodward says: “If the new 18km motorway was driven at the legal speed limit of 100km/h, this would take 11 minutes. However as this is to the north of Warkworth, another one to three minutes must be added to drive through the Hill Street intersection into the town of Warkworth, meaning that there are no time savings on the existing travel time of 13 minutes.”
“In NZTA’s business case, claimed time savings of 5 to 8 minutes are used to calculate over half of the economic benefits of the proposed motorway. Without these unrealistic time savings the project is a very negative return on investment.”
Here are the calculations…
Distance (km) Average speed (km/hr) Time (minutes)
Existing SH1 from tunnel into Warkworth (slow trip = 13 minutes): 17 km, 78 kph 13.1 minutes
Proposed Motorway (travel time saving of 5 minutes requires an average speed of 135 km/h): 18 km 135 kph 8.0 minutes
Proposed Motorway @ legal speed limit of 100 km/h = 11 minutes travel time: 18 km 100 kph 10.8 minutes
I’ve had similar thoughts myself about this issue actually. When I went up to the Warkworth open day a couple of weeks ago with a friend we timed the trip and measured the distance – with very similar results to what Mr Woodward has outlined here: an average speed of approximately 78-80 kph: and this was on a Saturday morning when the road was pretty busy.
Looking through NZTA’s business case for the project (which according to SAHA’s assessment, overstates the BCR very significantly) there’s a large reliance upon time savings benefits to provide the justification for the project (or at least attempt to do that). This is shown in the table below:
Quite interesting to compare the table above (which probably over-estimates the benefits of the Puhoi-Wellsford project) with a similar table from the CBD rail tunnel’s business case:
And this table excludes the employment benefits of the CBD Tunnel, which are massive as previously explained.
If we just look at transport benefits, it’s $1.32 billion in benefits for the CBD Tunnel against $530 million for Puhoi-Wellsford. I’m starting to see how Puhoi-Wellsford has a BCR of only 0.4 – it only delivers $689 million of NPV benefits (including WEBs) over its 30 year measuring period, but has a cost of around $1.6 billion (which may be less in NPV costs, I’m not an economist).
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One other thing the SAHA report indicates is that the benefits for P2W were actually calculated over 50 years not 30, in the table you posted the other day from it shows all projects were adjusted to a 40 year time frame, this meant cutting back the period for P2W while increasing the period the WRR, VPT and TEL
What this means is that P2W gets 0.4 over 40 years while the CBDRL gets 1.1 over 30 years
Yes indeed. Steven Joyce criticizing the CBD Rail Tunnel’s business case reminds me of that great old saying:
“Those in glass houses should not throw stones”.
Good point from Bevan. If you live on the south side of Warkworth and want to get to Auckland, it looks like it will be just as quick to take SH1. And you won’t have to pay a toll either.
And of course, Cameron, if Joyce gets his way the old SH1 will still be as dangerous as before- in fact perhaps even more dangerous without the calming effect of the current traffic volume. Which highlights the simple reason why this project will not give any kind of decent return on investment: because it doesn’t provide anyone, in Auckland or Northland, with anything that isn’t, substantially, already there.
How on earth this project could be considered vital to the country’s economic survival when it is nothing more than an expensive duplication is beyond me…. of course it helps the case for closing the Northern Rail Line, but mainly by sucking any money that might have gone to the criminally delayed maintenance on the line or it’s extension to the deep waters of Marsden Point.
We need to make investments that are transformative not repetitive.
Next up on the minister’s agenda: Increase the legal speed on motorways to 140 km/h for cars. This is considered vital for our economy, and brings New Zealand into step with overseas practice.
See, problem solved. All you folks on here just don’t have any imagination!
It just keeps getting worse and worse, in a way I’m actually quite happy that this project is Joyce’s pet project because it’s just so flawed that I’m sure even he wishes he’d backed a better horse.
The travel times suggested are fine on average days but try this on a summer weekend from now untill early March or during a long weekend. I have spent up to 2.5 hours driving from the tunnel to Walkworth on more than one occasion. This type of congestion is unrealistic when so much of northland relies on the tourism dollar to survive. Although the reports may not suggest a huge benefit, the variables considered are based on at best semi current and more likely historic info. If the project went ahead it would change the entire dynamic and everybody would be wondering why it hadnt happend years ago.
Consider a toll road with harsher penalties for those who dont pay, that may help to cover costs.
Easiest way for the NZTA to ‘counter’ this one is to drop the speed limit on the existing State Highway. The design speed on this road in places is not more than 60-70kph – in many (most?) other OECD countries the posted speed limit on any given road reflects the design speed.
Lowering the limit would be easily justifiable for safety reasons, and would have dual purpose of making a new road more attractive.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this happens – and it almost certainly will happen if the new motorway is built so as to encourage motorists to pay the toll and use the new road.
so… you’re against making the old road safer?
You’re pushing the boundaries of trolling there psilosopher.
I also find amusing (in a head-in-the-hands dejected kind of way…) the fact that the journey time benefits for P2W specifically include holiday periods. It’s hard to see how a shorter trip to your northern holiday destination of choice will make the country more productive. The point of a holiday is usually to stop being productive (in a macro-economic sense)!
Do you mean Warkworth missing out on the economic revenue it currently gets from having SH1 pass through it?
you’re clearly the only person in the country (i.e. auckland) who’s against this motorway
You mean Auckland is the only person in the country who doesn’t want the motorway…. yeah that makes sense.
Most Aucklanders probably aren’t against the motorway, but having said that most Aucklanders probably don’t know how much it costs, how little it will benefit the economy, and what else we could build for the same money.
Most New Zealanders would be supportive of a free plasma TV and hot tub for every household paid for by the consolidated account, that doesn’t make it a good idea!
Free dishwashers for each household might be a good idea though – think of all the time savings benefits!
As a Northlander I would support a toll road all the way to Whangarei
Especially if it was funded by my Kiwi saver money. What better investment.
Build a better road and the traffic comes!!!
Changing the subject of the the cost of toll collection could be significantly reduced by simply giving motorists the choice of a slightly higher toll (interest and commission for vtnz) only paid with Rego fees
Ie one transaction only