Yesterday I had a look some of the changes Auckland has seen over the last decade and as mentioned, here are some predictions for the next decade. To start off I’m going to address the projections made in the Herald by Victoria University Associate Professor Ian Yeoman.
We might not be flying around on jetpacks but we will definitely be using driverless cars, Yeoman says. “By 2024, we won’t need a test because all the cars will be self-drive.”
That will benefit those new to the country and the ageing, more frail population, he says. “Driverless cars will become more important and more mainsteam.”
He expects the electronic car will be more common than the combustion engine. “Electric cars and battery technology have come so far – electric cars are even sexy now… Porsche is doing an electric vehicle.”
Yeoman says the country’s cycleways will be populated by people on electric bikes rather than operating under pedal power. And although jetpacks will probably still be just a fun innovation and not something you’d consider relying on for your daily commute, Yeoman sees potential in the Terraflugia, a car that is licensed for road and flight.
Yeoman tells people: “Everything you saw on Star Trek has come true, except for teletransportation.”
Many many companies are now putting a lot of work into driverless cars yet they still appear to be years away from the market and even if they were available within 5 years, it’s unlikely they will be available or affordable for the mainstream market for considerably longer. What’s more even if they are available within a decade New Zealanders are keeping their cars for longer with the average age of vehicles increasing to 13.5 years old last year. In Auckland the average age is slightly less but also showing the same upward trend. It’s also for this reason that electric cars are likely to remain only a small proportion of the fleet in a decade
If driverless cars do start to be seen the first and probably biggest impact they will have will be on the taxi industry. Public Transport is the other area that could really benefit from driverless technology, it’s obviously used on some rail networks already although we probably need a more secure network before it’s possible here. Like taxi’s buses represent a huge opportunity as the labour costs are a huge portion of the operational costs.
As for the Terraflugia, that’s still really pie in the sky territory.
Cycling
The one area I do agree with Yeoman on electric bikes which offer the potential to effectively flatten out Auckland’s hills and see a lot more people out on bikes – that is if Auckland Transport pick up their game and build a lot more cycling infrastructure. Getting additional funding for more cycling infrastructure is something I think we will see happening, particularly towards the end of the decade as the number of people on bikes and public and political support for more cycling infrastructure continues to increase.
After being dragged through the environment court Skypath will be built and will be incredibly popular not just for commuters but for tourists too. By the end of the decade most people will be wondering why it wasn’t built sooner and why it wasn’t funded by the government.
Public Transport
Public transport is where I think we’ll see the biggest change over the next decade. As mentioned we’re already seeing PT usage increasing faster than Auckland’s population is increasing thanks to the investment that’s already been made however it’s not till the next few years we’ll really see the fruition of many years work become a reality. By 2017 we will have electric trains rolled out across the network and running at good all day frequencies. On top of that will be the dramatically better new bus network along with additional bus priority further improving choice and mobility for many people. Add in ferries and linking everything up with be integrated fares allowing people with HOP substantially easier (and possibly cheaper) trips around the region.
These improvements are of course not new with many cities having made them before however not many would have done them all at the same time. The effects of each project will combine to revolutionise PT in Auckland and I think will see patronage soar ahead of predictions and by 2024 be sitting somewhere between 120 and 140 million trips. On a per capita basis that would likely put Auckland at a similar level that Wellington is at now but which is still below many peer cities.
During the next decade I do think the CRL will be built and completed. The section from Britomart to Wyndham St will start sometime next year as part of the Downtown Shopping Centre redevelopment. My guess is the government will give the green light for funding the rest of the project in 2016 and actual construction will start in 2017 finishing around 2021/22.
As with cycling, I think the growing usage of PT along with the ever increasing public and political appetite for more PT infrastructure will see other major projects be substantially advanced. This includes
- The Northwest Busway
- The AMETI Busway
- Electrification to Pukekohe
- Designation and perhaps even an extension of the Onehunga line to Mangere as part of a longer term goal of getting the line to the airport.
In short I think the next decade is going to be a fantastic one for public transport.
Roads
There’s a huge amount of construction activity going on at the moment or is just about to start as part of the governments roading binge. All things going to plan in 2017 the Waterview Connection will be completed as well as the widening of SH16 and associated interchange upgrades. Associated with this is the governments $800 million for widening and upgrading other motorways around Auckland. This is likely to have the effect of sucking many more trips on to the motorway, some from alternative routes and some from induced demand. While it will see more people being able to drive around Auckland I suspect the queues on the roads will be just the same as they are now.
I suspect a big challenge for Simon Bridges over the next 3-4 years will be thinking through what the government will do next with transport in Auckland. The reality is almost all state highway projects in Auckland will have been done or nearing completion within half a decade. Further as these projects are completed it is likely to free up substantial sums of money (some of which will likely be used by the NZTA in other parts of the country. I do think we’ll see another couple of major motorway projects in Auckland in the form of widening SH16 between Lincoln Rd and Westgate (something that seems to have dropped off the radar) and from extending the SH16 motorway to Kumeu (the section from Brigham Creek Rd to Kumeu is one of the busier single lane roads in the region with well over 20,000 vehicles per day.
On the metrics I think we’ll continue to see per capita vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) remain flat although the total number of km travelled will increase slightly.
Governance and Funding
I’m not going to make any predictions about what will happen with governance but I do suspect Len Brown will stand again in 2016. Once again transport is likely to be the hot topic issue. I don’t think we’ll see any mayoral candidates oppose the CRL although some candidates for councillor will do. What happens further out than that is way too hard to predict.
Over the next half decade or so the issues around transport funding are likely to become more obvious and while they have been reluctant too so far, I think the government will start looking at how they can raise additional money to pay for transport projects and supplement fuel taxes which won’t be growing as people continue shifting to more fuel efficient vehicles and people don’t drive as much as predicted.
Urban Spaces and development
Auckland has seen some impressive change over the last few years and I expect that will continue in the coming decade. We’ll see huge changes in the CBD in particular as projects included in the Downtown Framework (and the other frameworks start to be delivered. These projects will continue to transform Auckland into a more people friendly place and I suspect it will have an effect not just on the liveability of the city but in attracting visitors to check out Auckland.
I think we’ll also see some of the strongest opposition to intensification and change reduce as people start to see better and better examples of good design. This isn’t to say there’ll be no opposition to development but just not quite the level of fear that currently exists.
Overall I think Auckland in 10 years time is going to be a very interesting place, one that has started to make huge inroads to fixing its scars from the second half of the 20th century. There’s a lot to be positive about.
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The idea that a large number of cars would be electric or self-drive in ten years’ time is not credible in any way. Any technology takes much longer than that to percolate through the vehicle fleet, as Matt has noted. Either this Ian Yeoman chap got a bit over-excited, or – and this seems more likely – he was taken a bit out of context and is actually meaning something like 30 years’ time.
Maybe not driverless cars owned by the general population but I can easily see them being rolled out very early by the likes of Uber. It would seriously disrupt the taxi industry by getting rid of one of the large costs.
I see great potential with driverless cars but not anytime soon. To my knowledge nobody has yet managed to develop a driverless car that operates perfectly in normal conditions, for instance in poor visibility, or that can respond to police officers directing traffic, or negotiating roadworks with no road markings, diversions etc. I suspect achieving that, even in a prototype form, will be many years, if not decades away.
Can’t agree more, look at other automotive technologies such as the automatic transmission, seatbelts, airbags, all took decades to become standard. With the amount of risk a self driving car introduces, I can’t imagine it won’t take decades as well. Todd Litman provides a decent critique of the implications of self-driving cars: http://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf
Yes these technological transitions take a very long time outside of huge shocks. The Prius after all first went on the market in 1997. Coming up for 20 years later and the market penetration of hybrids and EVs if still tiny. Degrees of automation in new cars is accelerating fast, but the jump to full automation of even a few vehicles on our streets is a very different thing. And the automation of the entire fleet, which is required for the efficiencies imagined by the promoters, is so far away as to be irrelevant. Oil supply issues are much more likely to affect the fleet and our movement habits before we have to contend with that.
Auckland in ten years? Well it will be what we make it. We will get more of what we invest in, mostly. Though it is striking how the last decade’s massive m’way investment has been met with a big shoulder shrug by the public. Despite this huge attempt to make urban driving quicker, smoother, more predictable, less of a hassle, people continue to try to use other modes at an ever increasing rate.
Vehicle Kilometres Travelled is barely keeping pace with population growth while Public Transport uptake is growing at twice the rate. Always watch the trend.
Oh, Yeoman – just another starry-eyed techno fantasist… yawn. Still, chaps like him have a job to do – weaving technology companies’ embryonic future offerings into the dreams of the masses to keep us buying stuff. Of course, the reality will be much more ordinary… anyone want to take a bet what fraction of cars will be even PHEVs by 2024? I reckon sub 10%.
On the ethical difficulties facing programmers of robot cars: http://urbanizationproject.org/blog/the-difficult-path-to-a-moral-code-for-self-driving-cars#.VDL35ijF8_U
Should electric bikes be allowed in bike lanes? Aren’t they just motorbikes in the same way electric cars are still cars and if so, should motor bikes be allowed in bike lanes?
What is the cut off point? Fuel source, engine power, bike top speed, weight of bike, type of wheel???
Power and weight. Very big difference between e-bikes and motorbikes, and even scooters.
This looks like the one for me: https://www.superpedestrian.com/
And is very definitely a bike, wouldn’t you agree?
Agree that one looks awesome. It has been delayed a few times so hopefully they can deliver and it is as good as it sounds.
I was deliberately trying to be provocative. Is this a bike or a motorbike? – because I want the competition version: http://www.stealthelectricbikesusa.com/bomber-electric-bike.html
How about these? Most have pedels? http://wordlesstech.com/2013/11/06/caterham-launched-cool-electric-bikes/
Those are clearly all e-motor bikes. They are all well over 300W and so need to be registered and the rider needs a motorcycle licence. The sites themselves describe them as motorbikes.
These are the kind of e-bicycles that should be allowed on bike paths:
http://www.smartmotionbikes.co.nz/smartmotion-range
They are clearly bicycles and are within the 300W limit.
That first one has two modes – a road legal mode limited to 250W, and a “Competition mode” which is 10 times or more of that limit.
In Road legal mode, its fully compliant with NZ laws as a bicycle.
Agreed its looks like a motorcycle but presumably they have adopted this split mode to allow it to be ridden to the off-road track then you put the pedal to the metal.
As Goodsoid points out those SmartMotion e-bikes are what most people think when they read “e-bike”.
In theory, you can’t just rely on electric power – you have to pedal – and many of them are limited to 30kph.
The SmartMotion ones can operate without pedalling, including starting from a complete stop, but you’ll drain the battery in a few minutes that way.
Ultimately, as long as the e-bikes are about the same size and weight as regular bikes, and have a similar top speed and acceleration, why shouldn’t they be able to use regular-bike infrastructure?
I ride an ebike every day and they definitely belong on the cycle paths. The law limits them to 300W and on the flat I am always overtake by lycra cyclists on road bikes. However, I will rapidly catch them on the hills.
That is the best thing about them, they just take the hills out of the equation so it is like cycling in a flat city like Chch.
I think you are imagining some kind of electric motorbike or scooter – they do exist but if they are over 300W they need to be registered and the rider licensed.
Despite the power, you have to remember how much heavier an ebike is. Mine is around 20kgs which may be three times a road bike.
If it has pedals it belongs in the bike lane. Ebikes have the capability to massively increase the people cycling in Auckland, especially to public transport hubs.
Well, the law is that any thing under 300W currently is a treated as a bicycle (about 1/3rd of a Horse Power in old measurements, which the law is based on).
So Goosoid is correct with his comments.
There are no electric motorcycles currently available with that low a power. So there is no scope to decide that a motorbike is a bicyle.
I think even the old “Solex” type front wheel friction drive petrol powered engine with pedals was more power than that so needed a Motorcycle (or Moped?) license to ride.
There are off-road e-bikes that you buy today that put out 600W or even 1000W, of power, but those are not road legal in NZ. But these are more electric motorcycles with pedals than an e-bike, eithe runder the current law or by any common sense definition of what an e-bike is.
OK – I concede defeat.
An electric bike is apparently already defined by law as less than 300W. Above that needs to be registered and is therefore a motorbike and cant go in a bike lane.
Still you must admit some of those more powerful ones do look cool. I assume they could be driven on a car licence but I assume licensing (licence plates and lights etc) would make it an uneconomic option.
My prediction for ten years.
Auckland will have the best transit system in Australasia. The CRL will only be a couple of years old, but well ahead of projections. More importantly the bus network will be carrying three or four times the patronage it does today, with most of the growth coming across the day, on evenings and weekends. People would have had seven or eight years to get used to the fact that using the bus network is fast and easy at any time of day, and usually easier than dealing with traffic and parking. Transit will become a normal thing, not a commuter thing. We’ve seen fourfold increases on the busway and rail as a result of changing from a near useless welfare service to regular, usable systems. That is about to happen for every bus route on every street in Auckland.
A whole generation will have moved through high school and university knowing that it’s often easier to catch the bus, and cheaper too. And it will be cheaper, not just because of new “all you can eat” fare passes, but especially because the large increase in all day use will have bumped up the fiscal efficiency such that fares will be the same as they are today in dollar terms, and considerably cheaper in real terms.
Traffic will be as high as ever, sitting at about the same equilibrium. Parking will be more expensive. People will drive a lot less per capita, but there will be more people. Cars will look and feel much like they are today, as will roads. People will still call for huge new motorways, but the sheer cost of retrofitting them to the city will ensure they stay on the drawing board.
Cycling will be a big thing, still not huge in sheer numbers, but high profile. Trunk cycle ways will stretch across the region and cycle lanes will be painted on to city and suburban streets with every upgrade or repair.
Auckland will be a world capital of culture and cool. We are already on the radar of trend spotters like Monocle, it won’t take too much to bump us up to the top of the list. The city centre will go from strength to strength, and suburban centers will be copying and innovating too. Transport becoming far cheaper and easier will mean people go out more, boosting attendance at shows, plays, gigs, bars and restaurants, but also parks, playgrounds, beaches and squares.
This will have a huge impact on the vitality of Auckland. Just going out once a month more on average will mean an extra twenty million person trips and activities a year.
We are well past the turning point already, Auckland is already reurbanising in the best possible way. We can’t see it so much because we are in the middle of the change, but looking back in ten years we will see this as the decade where Auckland grew into its boots as a stunning, confident and fantastic city. Like everything, we’ll look back and wonder why we didn’t do it all sooner.
I agree largely with Nick’s optimistic picture above, however just how far we are down this road depends a great deal on what we fund between from now on.
We really need the government to take its foot off the brake holding Auckland, and other cities, back. Allow us to build this successful new city with our taxes.
The effect that transportation changes will have on places will be the most dramatic and in most parts, for the better.
Assuming an early start on the CRL and a couple of new busways and we are going to see a boom in intensive development along and around those routes.
Sadly those look like bold assumptions. To any objective and rational analysis those are obvious and probably urgent projects; it is hard to be optimistic that those who are in charge of directing our money in this field will submit to the objective and rational, however.
Can you talk a little bit more about why / how Auckland will have the best transit system in Australasia??
How do you define that?
Even if EVERYTHING in the CFN is implemented by 2025 I don’t think Auckland would have the best transport system.
Sydney and Melbourne are not sitting on their hands and are starting from much better / higher bases than Auckland.
Auckland will have a great transport system if the CFN comes to life but the best..?
Even Wellington (I know this blog doesn’t like to talk about it much) already has a mature and extensive metro rail network.
The City only needs BRT to connect Airport / Miramar with CBD / Karori and a spur through Newtown to Island Bay.
Essentially two north – south, east – west lines.
The Region, two more BRTs that run from Titahi Bay to Whitby via Porirua Station and Wainui to Melling via Waterloo Station with a spur from Woburn through Jackson St to Petone Station.
Melling Bridge upgrades in Lower Hutt are looking at being brought forward and this will likely involve rail extension into Lower Hutt City CBD.
Otaki is possibly in line for electrification too as is the back of Upper Hutt, but what is more likely is that the two already mature Palm N and Wairarapa services will be maintained and enhanced.
There are already plans for the Great Harbour cycle way that basically already exists i.e. CBD to Eastbourne via Petone foreshore and removal of on street parking is already being negotiated on the cycle way that will run from Island Bay into the CBD.
Add in a Mt Vic to Karori cycle way via Aro Valley / Kelburn and a Brooklyn (Kingston Heights) cycle way to Thorndon and things are looking pretty good.
Ferry services in Wellington are underrated too. Seatoun wharf is being upgraded and Petone is available and ready for increased service as required along with the well known and established East – West service between Days Bay and the CBD at Queens Wharf.
Also I think there is huge potential to provide ferry services to the CBD from inside Evans Bay, possible wharves could be at Little Karaka and / or Greta Point but more importantly along Cobham Drive at the Kilbirnie Park / marina end and directly north of the Airport at the entrance to Miramar.
Then there is the possible extension of rail into the CBD… expensive yes but once the benefits of the CRL are seen in Auckland maybe more realistic.
If there was a Wellington CBD “loop / link” the rail system could run pairings through 2 or 3 central stations. i.e. Porirua to Naenae and Johnsonville to Melling via the CBD (c.55-60min routes). Waikanae / Upper Hutt run to Wellington station, loop through the 2 or 3 central stations and terminate (c.60-75min routes).
Wellington Station and the 2 or 3 central stations (Customhouse Quay x Grey St; Queens Wharf, Ghuznee St; Cuba Mall and Jervois Quay; Civic Square) could easily have 14 – 18 trains per hour running through at peak.
NOTE: I don’t expect a Wellington CBD rail link / loop to be finished or even started by 2024/5.
I just think the CRL will show that something can and should be down to Wellington’s metro rail in the CBD and that in shouldn’t terminate in the north at Thorndon.
I don’t expect anything to be seriously done until at least 2030/35, but by 2024/5 we will be thinking about it because the working example will be running in Auckland.
John, Auckland will be the best for two reasons. Firstly it is naturally very well suited to transit through geography, topography and density. Improvements will naturally work very well as a result. Secondly and most importantly, Auckland is leading the way in service and network design.
I’m not even taking about anything from the CRL and CFN, I mean just the New Network and electric trains. Wellington dumped its New Network, effectively. Melbourne is taking about maybe building one new rail link in fifteen years, Sydney is focussed on an extension that adds two stations to a line, and putting trams down a busy bus corridor.
Meanwhile Auckland is fixing up every single bus and train route in the region and making them into a single coordinated network. That isn’t glamorous like a city tram upgrade, but it is far more effective.
Melbourne has suburban bus routes that go once every two hours and don’t run after 3pm on a Sunday. They aren’t changing that by quad tracking the Dandenong Line, in fact all that billion dollar expenditure achieves is a little more peak time capacity and reliably.
Auckland already does pretty well at peak, but it is poised for a truely massive service upgrade for the other 14 hours a day and across the weekend. Auckland will be the best because it is starting with the basics, which no other city is.
Thanks for the response, I agree about the geography – also really well suited to bike share (once the helmet law is repealed).
I mean this sincerely so once Auckland implements the bus network what will there be stopping any other city with equal or better rapid transit following and adopting the changes?
Good question! I think there are two answers. Firstly governance and politics. Auckland is unique in that it has a single local government authority funded and empowered to plan, operate and build all (non state highway) transport. Elsewhere that task is divided across numerous local councils, regional or state bodies. In Australia they have federal funding pork to deal with too. In Sydney for example you have twenty something local councils responsible for planning and funding bus stops and intersections, one state agency who contract services, another than plans routes, another that funds infrastructure with federal funding, a Lord Mayor that tries to speak for the region, a separate task force for urban development and housing, another entity that runs the train, various operators of buses etc. Imagine trying to change just one route, let alone the whole network.
The second answer is incumbency. Wellington, Melbourne, Sydney have commuter networks that have been entrenched for many decades. Lumbering, slow, inefficient. Big focus on peak commuters to downtown, huge resistance to changing that. Auckland is starting from a low base with little entrenchment, so can take a proper blank slate approach and make things work amazingly without the inefficiency. We can do worlds best practice on every aspect of the transit system. Look at the trouble Melbourne e had introducing its Myki card, simply because it wasn’t that much better that the existing system, Sydney can’t even get theirs going. Our HOP rollout was actually very fast and easy, and uptake is very high.
Auckland is doing it right because it has the right governance structure, and simply has nowhere to go but up. Everything we do is a huge improvement. Other cities have to fight tooth and nail through bureaucracy to do the same.
Very good answer Nick. Auckland actually is on the cusp of something special. And if the government were to get fully on board too it will be truly world beating. Or at least region topping as Nick argues above.
Onward!
I am not sure about the Australian governance issues but it all sounds very likely, but in Wellington we do have basically the equivalent of AT in the form of Greater Wellington (Regional Council) and Metlink.
Also again if we are thinking of the next decade I’d say it is more than likely that there will be local government amalgamation in some form more towards where GWRC and Metlink currently are.
http://www.gw.govt.nz/assets/Transport/Public-transport/Train-docs/WellingtonRegionalRailPlan2010-2035.pdf
Check out Rail Scenario 1 – .6 pp. 38-47
– 15min or better across the rail network for the am peak (Melling 20min, north of Plimmerton 20min)
– 30% capacity increase for the am peak
– All Matangi class trains
– Express services on the Kapiti and Hutt Valley lines
30 trains arriving at Wellington Station:
04 trains from Johnsonville
11 trains from Kapiti (Waikanae 03, Plimmerton 04, Porirua 04)
09 trains from Hutt Valley (Upper Hutt 04, Taita 05)
03 trains from Melling
03 trains from Wairarapa
Project Implementation (timeline)
– KiwiRail eight year infrastructure ‘catch up’ renewals programme 2011 (FY12) to 2019
– Double track Trentham to Upper Hutt 2017 (FY18) to 2020
– Construct a turnback and passing loop (3rd Platform) at Porirua Station 2017 (FY18) to 2017
– Construct a turnback facility including signalling and track upgrades at Plimmerton 2017 (FY18) to 2017
– Redevelopment and upgrade of Upper Hutt Station 2019 (FY20) to 2020
– Upgrades and safety improvements at level crossings 2015 (FY16) to 2018
All completed before 2020, fairly minimal works
Pretty exciting for the train backbone and then there will be BRT and cycle way potential on top of this.
That’s good and I don’t mean to belittle Wellington, but in Auckland the electrification plan gives ten minute headways to every station on the network (except the two on the single track Onehunga Branch) all day long, seven days a week. That’s not too far off metro service levels.
You can see why I think we are in for some serious leap frogging! Not long ago we didn’t have Sunday trains and off-peak frequencies were hourly.
Yes that frequency is impressive – does it require the CRL or just current electrification plus rolling stock?
You would have no argument from me (and I meant to say it before) about Auckland being “most improved” over the next 10 years.
I don’t think Wellington needs or requires 10min frequency outside of the commuting peaks – 7-9am, 3-7pm M-F but I think this upgraded network could provide it if and when there was future demand.
That current plan would see:
7/tph at Plimmerton (8.5min) and 11/tph at Porirua (5.5min)
9/tph at Taita (6.5min) and 12/tph at Petone (5min)
Waikanae would have 3/tph that are express service plus the Capital Connection to Palm N (15mins?).
Upper Hutt would have 4/tph that are express service plus 3/tph on the Wairarapa Line (8.5min).
You are right – nothing to belittle.
That is just with the electrification project and the existing order of EMUs, it effectively maxes out the current network. With the CRL they could immediately run the same fleet at 8tph to every station (all three car units), and around 12tph with extra fleet.
John unless Wellington moves to a similar governance structure to Auckland then I don’t see it changing much. GWRC relies on other councils to implement many of the changes such as bus stops/priority and as Nick pointed out earlier, they already chickened out of making changes to the bus network. I get the overall feel that Wellington is resting on it’s laurels a bit. Sure that could turn around but any turn around will take time and even if they started today my guess is Wellington is at least 5 years away from being able to implement projects like integrated ticketing and fares or a new bus network. It’s not just on PT though but also on urban streets e.g. compare the likes of the Auckland Shared Spaces with those in implemented in Wellington, the latter is basically just a pretty street for cars to drive on.
As Nick says there’s a lot of inertia to overcome in all cities you mention and while it’s not impossible there doesn’t seem to be any real sign of it happening yet. Part of the reason is I think those cities don’t realise just how much opportunity there is partly because their systems have historically been much better. In Auckland’s case because the system has been so bad we need to do everything to a high standard/close to best practice if we want chance of sorting the city out.
I think it is assured that Wellington will consolidate, especially in the area of PT.
I think there will be a merging first of the Hutt Valley into one council, Porirua and Kapiti into another (Mana?) and Wellington City.
Wairarapa will be maintained as a separate but unitary council.
Further amalgamation is probably too hard to foresee at this stage.
Lets assume there are 3 councils plus the Wairarapa. I think that will be fine.
Metlink and metro rail are already regional (including the Wairarapa).
I think it would be easy with the next couple of rounds of bus contracts to implement Wellington “metro bus” under the same model as Wellington metro rail.
Snapper is also a smart card service already in high use and just waiting to be expanded and integrated further.
Ironically it is metro rail that ISN’T onboard with Snapper – an easy win for Wellington as it moves to gates at major stations and others that will be seeing upgrades – Johnsonville, Porirua, Plimmerton, Paraparaumu / Waikanae, Petone, Waterloo, Taita, Upper Hutt & Wellington stations.
So Buses in Wellington and the Hutt Valley already use Snapper as do the Ferries.
Only Mana Coaches with its very outdated “smartcard” needs to be added along with the GWRC’s metro rail.
There could even be adoption of “Wel HOP” if that is seen as a better alternative or both cards running on an integrated network.
I don’t see integration as difficult, GWRC has effective control of regional PT and the bit part local bus operators know it.
I also don’t see the bus services even if they run more autonomously than Auckland being a problem.
Wellington IMO needs 4 major BRTs to complement its mature and increasingly effective metro rail (see the rail study in the link above).
2 are in Wellington City; Karori – Airport, Island Bay – CBD,
1 each in Porirua (new Mana); Titahi Bay – Whitby and the Hutt Valley; Wainuiomata – Melling / Petone.
These BRTs will not cross territorial boundaries even in a Wellington of 3 councils.
By 2020 Wellington metro rail should have the capacity to provide a minimum 7/tph (8.5min) south of Plimmerton and Taita.
With better than 11/tph (5.5min) through Porirua and Petone when required.
Leadership taken by a GWRC controlled Wellington metro bus will see the bus services integrated effectively along with the ferries.
Shared streets?
Cuba Mall and the Left Bank are great shared spaces as are numerous connections off Lambton Quay.
Allen and Blair St off Courtney Pl are good too, Edward St and Swan Ln are easy pickings for development as the shops, bars / cafes are already there.
I do think the focus for a while now has been on the waterfront from Wellington station to Waitangi Park.
I hope to see Marion St upgraded and reworked as a second “Cuba” along with Leeds / Eva & Egmont St connecting Vivian and Dixon St.
There are so many awesome already largely urban east – west streets to develop too between Taranaki St and Cambridge Tce.
A really great project for Wellington would be a Cuba St / Mall extension.
If the length of Cuba was fully shared space / mall from the Town Hall / Michael Fowler (Civic Square – Library, Gallery etc) to Webb St you would have amazing connectivity.
Shared space down Webb St to Taranaki St and up Hopper / Hankey St in the already urbanised Te Aro / Mt Cook would see Massey University connected to the waterfront.
In fact via Tasman and Rugby St (two fairly low level streets) you would have connected the Basin Reserve, Wellington Hospital and Massey Uni via Cuba St / Mall to the Civic Square and the Waterfront!
Te Papa, Waitangi Park and Oriental Parade (beach) to the east and Aotea Lagoon, Fran Kitts Park, Queens Wharf and Wellington station to the north.
Not a lot required to make that happen in the next decade with a little awareness.
Everybody owns a Segway in the city
I’m thinking segway’s will become more compact, e.g. those uni-wheel platform versions without the steering column. More similar to a single-wheel self-leveling skateboard. I saw a couple of people using them in Paris on my recent trip; they have the big advantage that you can pick them up and carry them on bus/train. And drive easily on footpath.
I don’t see driverless cars being around for decades. Semi autonomous mode in congested traffic, but not full automation for private vehicles. However I do see driverless electric buses on fixed routes happening much sooner. In fact I would expect most buses to become driverless far sooner than private vehicles.
They spelled Ti Rakau Dr incorrectly in the video
I hope SkyPath will be settled if Environment Court decisions are needed by calling a Board of Inquiry, if was good enough for the PuFord/HH and the Basin Reserve Flyover then its good enough for SkyPath.
That way those North Shore Nimbys, can’t keep appealing it and it may take a bit longer, but way less than 10 years to get built.
And I assume “next Decade” is defined as the one starting on 1 January 2021, not the one starting in 2024 (or 2025).
> And I assume “next Decade” is defined as the one starting on 1 January 2021, not the one starting in 2024 (or 2025).
I got the impression the “next decade” was the one starting today and finishing on 7 October 2024.
I’m taking the JFK interpretation of Decade here – the decade that started with his speech to Congress “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before the decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth”.
NASA had a lot of debate around the time of the Apollo 1 fire, during the subsequent delays and inquiries, as to whether they could reasonably get away with extending the interpretation of JFK’s “before this decade is out” to mean the 10 years (decade) after Kennedy set the challenge – which would have meant on or before May 25 1971 was more or less an ok date to land on the moon
– and they looked every part like they needed those 18 months just after the Apollo 1 fire happened that’s for sure.
But they were made to stick with the original interpretation of “end of the decade being the end of 1969” and pulled it off – probably as much because Kennedy wasn’t around to ask what he actually meant as for anything else. Their Moon program funding was pretty much over anyway thanks to Congress and Nixon’s cronies by the time the tenth anniversary (decade) since that speech rolled round in 1971.
And actually NASA managed to deliver early and put two men on the moon and return them both safely to earth twice “before the decade was out”.
So technically NASA over-delivered 400% on Kennedy’s actual challenge and also delivered 5 months earlier than they needed to.
So we too can surely “choose to go to our moon…and do the other things…” – for many reasons – but the reasons stated then – “because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win…” as just as valid for “this nation”, and for those who “choose to live in Auckland” and all who know that there simply is a better way than the present situation.
And these reasons are just as valid now as they were when Kennedy said them in a speech at Rice University in 1962.
So, yes lets aim for end of 2019 as our “decade” challenge, and accept no reasons for “well its really sometime in 2024” as the actual target and see how far we can get.
See how far we’ve come in just 5 years, and Imagine what we could actually achieve in a decade, if we could achieve everything above in 5 and a bit years (as we have done in the last 5 or so) and then have 4 and bit more years up our sleeve as well?
Oh, I don’t know. I have yet to meet a Regulan Slime Dog.
I do get a slight feeling of “doth protest too much” about driverless and electric cars on this blog. I too roll my eyes when they are used as an excuse for not doing what’s needed for PT and active modes. However, there’s also massive benefits, and I’m looking forward to them
i. Not killing 1.2 million people per year around the world is a good start. Someone made the point recently that while the Vietnam war was killing 70K Americans, over 700K died in traffic accidents back home. They didn’t get a monument, even though their deaths were just as pointless. At NZTA’s value of a human life calculation (and after all, who better to say what a life is worth!), that’s 400 billion a year lost [Go on someone, take the bait and say that lives in other countries aren’t worth so much]. How about a cost-benefit analysis on the value of spending to get driverless to market 10 years ahead of the default schedule?
ii. Then there’s a similar number killed by vehicle-induced air pollution. Roll on electric.
iii. The amount of city land freed up by the reduced need for car parks just gave us a big density boost and big reduction in ugly.
iv. Being able to rent out the 300K converted garages around Auckland just fixed our lack of low-cost accommodation.
v. As someone commented here some time ago, I’m really looking forward to being able to cross the road any time anywhere knowing the driverless cars will stop for me 😉
One downside: it’s part of the coming automation revolution that puts a big chunk of our work force on the dole. That’s not something to get excited about.
Yeah but that’s accepting that all that glory comes to pass. My view is that these benefits are both much less likely and much further away than the boosters claim. Hey in as much as urban traffic is a problem [and it is] robot cars, in theory, go a long way to solving that problem, simply by reducing, slowing, and controlling that traffic, in theory. Bring it on. In theory.
Agree. The decision here is mostly a political one no? As mentioned above driverless cars would really only show their full benefit if ALL cars are robotic. So it would require a complete switch over in my opinion and that would be pretty difficult to do. And who pays for it?
Maybe it starts with inner cities being cordoned and designated ‘Robo-mobil capable’ sectors only. Much like emission standard ratings they have in Europe that only allow certain ratings into some inner cities. Or are robotic cars better for places like motorways, were you might see a minimum standard of automation being required to be allowed on in the future, so as you enter the on-ramp a computer takes over.
But I can’t see any of this happening in the next 10 years. Sure, maybe a few straggler google cars will roam the streets (with a designated driver still behind a wheel to keep it legal) but what use is a robot car if you are sitting in a traffic jam of humanoid drivers.
If driverless cars automatically stop for pedestrians does this mean all roads and streets effectively become shared spaces?
From a legal point of view, I think it will be very difficult to get the process started in ten years. It took about 30 years for our copyright law to be updated to take into account things like photocopying, let alone email, scanning and everything else we have available.
I don’t think anyone is denying how great they would be. Especially as you say in freeing up parking spaces. But humans are a conservative bunch. How long will it take before we all feel relaxed with a car coming at you with no-one behind the wheel?
Considering how often a simple operating system like Windows has glitches on a home PC when checking emails and looking Facebook, I hope they have slightly better software on board.
Outside of shared spaces, jaywalking laws (if we have them) would need enforcing. People taking back the streets (even if not legally entitled to) would cause havoc for these getting around. Right now you don’t step out on a main road for fear of being kocked down and killed. So what if that risk is practically eliminated?
How ironic. The success of these vehicles would actually be in the hands (or feet) of those walking.
They also surely mean the end of driving as fun. Some men [especially] seem to really like being in control of cars. What will all those petrolheads do?
As has been demonstrated in countless other cities (Perth, Brisbane, London Overground etc) – once you have a good quality rail service, the expectation of the public is that it should be extended, the issues about paying for extensions tend to dissolve, the bureaucracy required to extend it exists (and is hungry to build its empire), and with a bit of luck you get a virtuous circle of development and increased patronage.
On that basis, once you have the CRL in place, the practicality/economics/politics of a link to the north shore, airport and Hamilton should improve considerably (platform space in Britomart, ease of onward connections via rail, electrification and signalling upgrades already in place etc). A DMU service to Hamilton will lead to calls for the NIMT to be upgraded and the gap in electrification to be filled. Once that is in place, you could imagine that the city and port of Tauranga would be quite keen on having electrification and their own passenger service (savings on fuel alone could make it quite attractive for the port of Tauranga to invest in electrification).
We’re probably quite a way beyond 2024 now, but once you have those kind of regional rail connections in place with reasonable frequencies (lets say hourly), it becomes much more attractive to live somewhere along the line and commute into Auckland (or in reverse if you prefer urban living) and you start creating an extended city-region.