Patronage results for September are out and the news is mixed with rail doing much better and starting to achieve strong growth once again while on the other side of the coin, the bus network (which carries the most people) appears to be flailing around a bit. Ferry patronage also declined.
Auckland public transport patronage totalled 69,277,456 passengers for the 12-months to Sep-2013 an increase of +0.2% on the 12-months to Aug-2013. September monthly patronage was 5,853,318 an increase of 107,445 boardings or +1.9% on Sep-2012, normalised to ~-2.1% accounting for one more business day in Sep-2013 compared to Sep-2012.
Rail patronage totalled 10,217,793 passengers for the 12-months to Sep-2013, an increase of +1.0% on the 12-months to Aug-2013. Patronage for Sep-2013 was 925,014 an increase of +102,143 boardings or +12.4% on Sep-2012, normalised to ~+8.4%.
The Northern Express bus service carried 2,280,688 passenger trips for the 12-months to Sep-2013, an increase of +0.1% on the 12 months to Aug-2013. Northern Express bus service patronage for Sep-2013 was 187,738, an increase of 2,708 boardings or +1.5% on Sep-2012, normalised to ~-2.5% accounting for one more business day in Sep-2013.
Other bus services carried 51,223,526 passenger trips for the 12-months to Sep-2013, a 0.0% change on the 12-months to Aug-2013. Other bus services patronage for Sep-2013 was 4,365,633, a decrease of -951 boardings or 0.0% on Sep-2012, normalised to ~-4.0%.
Ferry services carried 5,555,449 passenger trips for the 12-months to Sep-2013, an increase of +0.1% on the 12 months to Aug-2013. Ferry services patronage for Sep-2013 was 374,933, an increase of 3,545 boardings or +1.0% on Sep-2012, normalised to ~-3.0%.
The rail network result is obviously outstanding considering what we have seen over the last few years. We noted that things seemed to be starting to turn around a few months ago and so if we can maintain the growth until the EMUs start rolling then I think we will be in a superb position to see excellent growth and push towards the 20 million trip target the government set to bring forward the construction of the CRL. This will be further boosted by Auckland Transport saying they will bring forward the consultation of the new bus network out west to take advantage of the improved rail network.
Following on from the South Auckland consultation, we had planned to consult North Auckland next. However, in order to tie in with improvements to rail and the introduction of electric trains, the next consultation will be for the rest of West Auckland and will commence mid-2014.
We still have a way to go to catch up to the highs seen during the RWC though.
The patronage worm starting to turn
A couple of additional interesting/concerning points about the rail network and ticketing from the report or in the business report.
- Usage of HOP for tickets was 71% in September. From memory it was in the 50-60% range before so a good sign.
- However fare evasion was also up. It has been tracking around 5% however in September there was a “greater focus on peripheral stations” which saw evasion increase to 7.1%. AT have been quick in the report to point out that Melbourne is currently seeing 9.9% but that doesn’t mean our result is should be particularly applauded.
However as mentioned the really disappointing aspect has been the bus network which when adjusted for the extra business day in September this year saw patronage down on September 2012. It was down on regular bus services and on the Northern Express. Further the breakdown by sector showed that west and south performed the worst perhaps suggesting a little bit of patronage has moved back to the rail network which has been much more reliable over the last few months than it has been for a few years (although I suspect October won’t look so great). I also wonder if all of the drama’s surrounding HOP are having a negative impact on people’s perceptions of buses.
Of course if we believe the figures provided by Auckland Transport the bus and ferry operators, both of those modes manage to achieve 99% punctuality meaning all of you complaining about buses running late are just in the unfortunate 1%. Of course we all know this is rubbish as for starters it is self-reported and also buses/ferries are counted as being on time providing they start their journey on time, not when they finish their trip like how they are counted on the rail network. AT say they are developing an independent system to report bus performance based on the real time data however we first heard this back in March and based on the screenshot the project was fairly advanced so who knows what has happened to it.
We have mentioned a few times over recent months the impact that the SH16 works are going to have on buses and positively AT and the NZTA have started to implement some solutions to improve the situation. The business report also suggests that there might be some further improvements to come suggesting a medium term solution will likely come into effect in January with a longer term solution happening mid-2014.
A joint AT and NZTA team is working to monitor and resolve bus impacts. The outputs of this work has fallen into 3 categories – quick wins (September / October 2013), medium term options (by January 2014) and longer term options (early to mid-2014). A number of quick win solutions are being implemented at the time of writing including:
- A bus//T2 lane on the Great North Road Westbound onramp – this will replace the left hand traffic lane and will not be impacted by the ramp signal
- A complimentary priority lane on Great North Road approaching the onramp
- SH16 westbound lane loss at Great North Road off-ramp – and lane gain at great North Road onramp. This eliminates merge delays on the on-ramp
- Improving flow through and off the Lincoln Road off-ramp
- Constant speed limits on the motorway
- Sections of bus shoulder lanes will be reinstated on the motorway (Rosebank to Partiki Road)
Longer term solutions including improving flow and throughput on Te Atatu Road and the investigation of bus lanes on the motorway are being fully investigated.
When it comes to cycling numbers, they also appear to have started to flat line a little bit after seeing good growth over the last few years that we have been tracking them.
Lastly from the business report AT have highlighted a campaign to attracted ferry passengers from the upper harbour. I think it’s great that they are pitting the ferry experience off against the mundaneness of driving on a motorway where you need to be paying attention to other vehicles.
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It would be interesting to know if private motor vehicle traffic has increase, I have personally felt over the last month PM rush hour traffic on the shore has increase and feels much higher, I would be interested to know if this links in with drop in bus usage. The other thing impressive with rail is the weekend shutdowns that has been happening, that really must put people off using train., so to be holding/increase boarding is very good
I have been worried about those cycle numbers losing steam for a while now. It’s currently still a nice annual growth, but… with pretty much any cycle project seeing months and months and even years of delays at the moment, it is not surprising that the growth is looking a bit shakier. There have been only 10 km of new cycleways built last year, compared to the 50-60 km we need annually to actually fulfill the Auckland Plan target:
http://caa.org.nz/auckland-transport/barely-10-km-of-new-cycle-facilities-built-last-year/
It’s clear that we aren’t anywhere “out of the woods” yet with cycle growth from the last couple years. More cycle facilities (now, not in 10 years) and good-quality cycle facilities (not pared-down shared paths next to rubbish bins because parking wasn’t allowed to be removed) are needed.
Speaking as a 25x, 26x ( Dominion Rd ) user I’ve noticed:
1. The Lighting phase change at the Civic corner a couple of months ago seems to work. Traffic turning left from Wellesley St East into Queen St gets a go twice on every phase cycle. Works pretty well except when a “straight-ahead” vehicle is in the lane.
2. Symonds St from Mt Eden Rd to K Rd is sometimes getting completely jammed in the mornings (heading into town). At least twice in the last couple of months it has come to a completely standstill and taken 30 minutes to traverse. Buses are a big percentage of the traffic and I think city-going Bus-lanes might be required.
3. In the evenings I think Bus-lanes on Dominion Rd need to be extended to 7pm (from the current 6pm), Traffic is still very heavy at this time and the lose of a lane instantly slows everyone down.
4. Enforcement of bus lanes is needed. In the mornings there are some people who stop in the bus lane every day to pick up their morning coffee.
5. Perhaps: In the evening peak I think bus drivers need to start loading earlier and leave on time. I’d like to say that as soon as one bus appears and starts to load the one in front should leave. Not as sure on this one since their are a *lot* of people catching the bus. At least 90% of them are on HOP though which helps.
Needs to be a lot more enforcement, or they should install permanent cameras around the place, the Symonds Street lanes are rife with abuse, as are the Park Road ones, in fact all of them are. All of the people know full well what they’re doing is illegal, but rely on the fact that most of the time there’s never any enforcement, and you can often see when there is.
I would like to se the bus drivers all having dash cams and AT dishing out fines from them.
A complimentary priority lane on Great North Road approaching the onramp.
They didn’t really spell complementary like that did they?
To be fair to the buses, starting their trip on time is a good result. It is the estimated time on the timetables that needs to be looked at. Most are totally unrealistic especially in rush hour traffic. I see New North Road is being amended to reflect reality rather than wishful thinking, which is a start.
I reckon fare evasion on the trains is far worse than a mere 7.1%. The amount of short trip evaders only travelling a stage or two is where the real problems lie because of course there is no ticket gates, few inspectors and those that are there have no enforcement powers. Having said that you can travel for free just about anywhere as long as you don’t get off at Newmarket or Britomart and if caught come up with a lame excuse and tell the inspectors you got on one station before they did (observed this many a time). I watched one passenger get on at Britomart and tag off at Sylvia Park and then get back on, last seen heading toward Papakura but paying for three stages only. The system IS broken people!.
And i feel really sorry for the casual & honest passengers who get left behind because of the glacial pace those paper ticket machines process transactions. I believe the whole honesty system of fares has seen those who wouldn’t have used the trains getting on and causing problems as well.
I would like to see total revenue per month prior to the HOP debacle and after and until the system is done properly e.g all stations gated with paper and electronic tickets able be used in the one tag off machine, reintroduce ticket sales on trains, for all ratepayers and honest passengers sake.
Reintroducing ticket sales on trains would definitely be a backwards step, what they do need to do is gate the core stations of the network, or say at least the busiest 5-10 stations which would reduce most fare evasion, as well as more patrols say maybe 1 pair per 2 services, that way there is a 50% chance your ticket will get checked on each journey.
Another thing they could do post EMU is have the driver doing the opening and closing of doors, and the TM going up and down the train doing ticket checks/customer service, but no ticket sales. That would cut evasion drastically without the need for gates.
Holding the train will not happen otherwise the train trip will have half an hour added to it minimum. Picture how long it would take for the TM to go the length of a 4-6 car train anyway identifying who has paid and who hasn’t! Furthermore some of these free loaders become extremely confrontational to the point of violence if their god given right to defraud is questioned.. I suggest ticket sales because it recovers costs of running the trains and its a big job to gate all stations or even some of them. In the interim the free ride continues and frankly that kind of generosity with and misuse of rate payer money by AT is disgrace.
Fares don’t remotely cover the operational costs of trains. Also everything needs to be put in perspective, yes fare evasion is not good but how much is it actually affecting revenue. Lets say it’s 10% or roughly 1 million passengers a year. That equates to perhaps $2m dollars annually. That’s a lot of money but only a fraction of what it actually costs to run trains (about $100m) and it would likely cost much more than that to significantly reduce evasion. In short it’s a balancing act between stopping as much fare evasion as possible and spending as little operationally as possible.
Matt L, you miss the point I was trying to make, I actually think the evasion is far worse than the official stats claim it is and I can understand although not accept why the figures would be underestimated, why scare the horses! I assume the figures are based on ticket inspectors information but that does not count the amount of punters who abandon ship when they see them and I’ve seen this over and over again. They wait for the next train and then ride free because ticket inspectors are few and far between..
And therefore the losses are far more than a lazy couple of mill which to me is a lazy couple of million too many. And as a ratepayer I do not want to roll over and die and say its too hard so why not let the train service be a charity to those who don’t feel like paying. I mean what kind of attitude is that? The negative spin off effects of the freebees on our trains are losers that should never be on them or would never ride them because they would have to pay get on, the kind of individuals who see a weakness as something to be exploited and included in this exploitation is railway property or passengers.
I expect that AT will not accept anything less than 100% fare collection or abandon the system. If we are going to lose money then at least try to ensure that trains are for fare paying passengers only.
If you do the math, the current rail growth, nor restoration of previous faster growth, is not going to reach 20 million passengers this side of the year 2020, so the government target for an early start on the CRL isn’t going to be met. If it starts earlier, it’ll be due to some other factor. Most likely a pre-election announcement.
“the current rail growth” is irrelevant.
http://www.aucklandtransport.govt.nz/improving-transport/plans-proposals/IntegratedTravel/Pages/regional-public-transport-plan-2012.aspx
http://www.aucklandtransport.govt.nz/improving-transport/auckland-rail-upgrade/electric-trains/Pages/default.aspx
Neither electric trains nor the new bus network will get patronage to 20 million in time to activate the early start. Think about it, with the lead time between announcement and construction start, you would need to hit 20 million in 2017, just for a 2019 start. And of course for the desired 2015 start, we will need to hit 20 million before the end of 2013. Obviously that’s not going to happen.
The govern’t hasn’t said that patronage needs to hit 20m before construction starts, it just has to be on track to hit it.
Don’t think it will take 2 years from go ahead. The council is proceeding full steam ahead with consenting and detailed design.
So it is just the tender process that will need to wait for once go ahead is given. Whats more there are some service relocation works in the road corridor that can be started much quicker without having to wait for full tunnel tender.
Of course 15 minute all day 7 day a week frequencies and a fully integrated bus network is a much bigger improvement than we have seen in the past, so should well surpass previous patronage growth.
Though as Patrick said the target is nonsense anyway, and because of Britomart’s limitations if we get to 20 million will be with lots of passengers doing trips that do not even involve Britomart.
Yeah I think we will see a lot of the little things that can be done sooner completed e.g. with the demolition of the downtown mall likely to start in 2014 or 2015 I can see AT taking the opportunity to extend the tunnel at least under the Albert/Customs St intersection so they can then implement other projects without having to go back and redo everything after the CRL.
The lead in time is split across though. Much of the design work can be done before the start date. Also, given increased frequency and capacity we could probably do 3m in a single year which would definitely put us on track to reach it.
Talking about an early start is just falling for National’s trap, they want to delay it, the original starting date of 2016 is when it was planned to begin. In any case, National are looking increasingly likely to be gone by this time next year, meaning the CRL was start as planned.
That rail growth target was always nonsense. It requires waiting till 2020 anyway to see if we should have started construction earlier.
I still think it’s a good idea to aim for the 20m
Absolutely. And beyond. And of course the steps to that are the three parts of the Great Upgrade: Integrated ticketing & fares, Electrification, and the New Network for buses.
A look at the new Overground service in London is instructive. This was a rebrand and improvement of largely existing British Rail services and integration with (especially) the tube map and with bus stops. Ridership went from 33mil in 2008 to 120mil now. Nearly 400% in five years just by improving services and rebranding.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21588072-london-has-built-about-good-transport-network-it-could-given-its-constraints-time
Of course London is mature Transit market, unlike AKL, and these new orange lines slid in perfectly on the map between the Tube and the DLR to forge new links but still I believe this project is comparable to what is happening in AKL with the new EMUs and their improved frequencies and speeds, but no new routes (until the CRL and associated projects open). A substantial lift in legibility and service quality will be rewarded with new riders but to what extent depends on how much the rest of the network also improves.
Buses therefore are key. And cycling is important too as a feeder mode.
Assuming we do soon (!) get both integrated ticketing and fares then all effort must go on improvement to bus right of ways. Somehow the idea that streets can only be improved to serve the missing modes without any reduction in either on-street parking or general traffic lanes has to be shaken from AT’s head.
Too much dinosaurian thinking still from AT.
Why? Just so we can aim for some arbitrary number that John Key made up?
The adverts for ferries might be good. Then look at the prices.
Not kicking in open doors but id predict that the ferry services wont be a big success.
Why oh why do they have to set prices at those levels when they full well know its going to ensure the service isnt a success.
The cycling numbers are always more interesting when adjusted for population growth, especially given the latest census data.
Here’s a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation. In the census period, Auckland gained a mean 15-16k people per year. Assuming that 1.5% of those new people cycled 180 days a year, twice a day, there should be an annual average increase of 84k trips in the year across the region. If the cycle counters only sampled 25% of that, we should observe at least +21k counted events.
For context, this year to September has seen an additional ~37k trips over the same time in 2012. And the final three months last year saw +11k over 2011, so a reasonable guess might be a total of +50k events for 2013.
While these are wholly unscientific figures, it does indicate the order of magnitude of effect that population growth can have. Even being conservative with the estimates above, a large portion (~40%) of the growth in absolute terms can be explained by the base population change.
Given a more accurate account of spatial distribution (area units should do), and given that much of the development has been in central places, I’d expect it to be even more of a factor. Also, if our standardised cyclists were more than 1.5% of the population, or cycled more than 2×180 days in a year on average, or if the counters sampled a higher rate (plausible, given that they co-locate with actual infrastructure?), then even more of the shift in counts would be due to the baseline movement.
(And this is putting aside all the other methodological questions that the cycle counting programme raises.)
The big picture from all the published counts, surveys and reports over the last few years has indicated a plateau was emerging, at best. The cycling-is-booming line was never a responsible summary of the situation. Proclaiming a 17% unadjusted annual growth rate may look impressive on the face of it, but when you’re working from a modeshare that fits comfortably within the overall margin of error for a general travel survey, on top of a growing population base, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
In that report it says: Continued rollout f the AT HOP card on all bus services continues for a target completion in
March 2014. What a joke. So now the rollout will go beyond Christmas! Why isn;t there an inquiry into this shambles?
I still don’t understand how they can know how much fare evasion is going on, after all, isn’t the whole thing with fare evasion is that they’re evading the system? For example, if I went from Glen Eden to Henderson and never paid, how would I be counted in those statistics?
Fare evasion is determined based on how many people are found without at ticket. So they might check say 20% of all trips and from that they find 7% of people don’t have a valid ticket and so that figure is extrapolated across the network. Ticket inspectors usually stay on a train for a number of stations and so do pick up on shorter trips too. They also occasionally do station blocks where they have a heap of staff at each station and check everyone passing through.
When are the weekend and evening shutdown going to end? Surely they will not go much beyond feb 2014 on the southern and western lines. Having full services back will surely help patronage on those lines. Has AT release any information on the Christmas shutdown yet? They must have a plan for it by now.
Electrification should be complete in within the first few months of the new year so will hopefully stop then. Yes details have already come out about the shutdown and we have covered it before. http://greaterakl.wpengine.com/2013/09/06/electrification-and-emu-update-to-transport-committee/
Shutdown from December 26 to January 19
It’s still far more difficult to get a HOP card (of either kind) than it ever should be. Whatever incentives are being offered to retailers should be increased significantly.