We have talked quite a bit about how we are in the middle of a generational shift when it comes to transport with the most notable change being that younger people are choosing to drive less than older generations. It seems the mainstream media are finally starting to catch up to this fact with the herald yesterday reporting:
More Kiwi seniors are driving than 10 years ago, while more younger people are opting to be car-free.
A new survey shows the proportion of over 65s who drive has grown by about 10 per cent in the past decade to 91.4 per cent.
That equates to about 170,000 more senior motorists on the road, making over 65s the third largest bloc of road users, behind 35- to 49-year-olds and 50- to 64-year-olds.
The research by Roy Morgan shows seniors are now more likely than under 35s to drive.
“The decline in driving among younger people correlates to an increase in public transport usage,” Roy Morgan general manager Pip Elliott said.
“For instance, in the year to August 2003, 25 per cent of all 25-34 year-olds travelled by bus within an average three months; in the year to August 2013, this had risen to 30 per cent.”
The increase in over 65s is likely to be the baby boomer generation – the most keen driving generation of them all – starting to move into the over 65 category. The article also notes:
In all age groups except over 65s, the proportion of the population who drive has dropped over the past 10 years.
Nationwide there are now three million drivers, an increase of almost 400,000 over the past decade, but the overall proportion of drivers in the population has declined slightly to 84.3 per cent.
We have shown before that we are seeing this trend through a number of different measures. The number of driver licences being issued has fallen dramatically over the last few years.
Some of the more recent changes are due to the increasing of the age limit for learners but that happened in 2011 and we still aren’t seeing any increases despite higher pass rates.
On other measures we are seeing trends with the number of new cars and the distance people travel also decreasing on a per capita basis and especially in Auckland.
With all of this going on, it’s interesting to see that the NZTA has obviously also noticed the trend and recently put out a request for some research on what was needed for public transport to serve younger generations. It is titled Public transport and the next generation and the key parts of the request are:
Purpose/research question
What does Generation Y want out of Public Transport (PT)? How do we meet the needs of Generation Y and are there any significant barriers to Generation Y using PT? Will Generation Y shift from PT to private vehicles at the same rate as previous generations?
Knowledge gap
Generation Y is also known as the Millennials and consists of those born from about the early 1980s onward. Today they are aged between about 16 and 32. There are some international indicators that this group is driving less and using other modes like public transport and cycling in greater numbers than the previous generation.
This research should explore the transport patterns of Generation Y in New Zealand and identify whether they are following international trends of driving less.
The research should also identify any barriers inherent in our PT system for the next generation. In particular it would be beneficial to know what features of PT are attractive and valuable to this next generation.
This sounds like really interesting research and something we will keep a close eye on.
Slightly unrelated but at the same time as that piece of research was being advertised the NZTA also put out another request for research on public transport that we will keep a close eye on the results of. It is titled Benefits and risks from improvements to public transport infrastructure such as improvements to or new bus interchanges, bus stops and bus lanes.
Purpose/research question
What are the NZ specific benefits, and risks to be managed, as a result of new and improved public transport infrastructure particularly bus interchanges, bus stops and bus lanes ?
What strategies and methods can be employed to justify and encourage optimal provision for public transport infrastructure such as bus interchanges, bus stops and bus lanes on major public transport corridors and in city centres where there is plenty of commercial and residential car parking?
There is a need for an evidence base that can demonstrate to the benefits, including economic value, of investing in public transport infrastructure and facilities.
Knowledge gap
The sector lacks evidence, specifically robust NZ evidence, of the economic, social and environmental benefits that can be achieved as a result of improved infrastructure associated with public transport bus services.
For example, there is growing realisation that poorly conceived car parking policies are an impediment to creating an effective and balanced urban transport system, and that this can exacerbate traffic congestion and air pollution. It can also result in a less liveable city environment.
Evidence of this knowledge gap is often demonstrated when car parking spaces next to shops are removed or intended to be removed and replaced with a bus interchange, bus stop or bus lane.
At present there is insufficient knowledge of the evidence to convince business owners, political leaders and other stakeholders that investment in public transport infrastructure like bus interchanges, bus stops and bus lanes should be made at the expense of car parking in some cases. There is also insufficient evidence on how to manage the risks associated with these improvements.
Reading both those research proposals almost brings a tear to the eye so great work NZTA for actually looking into them.
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Sorry if I missed it: is there somewhere I can go to answer this?
So we wont need these new RONS then?
Sorry if I missed something obvious but is not a lot of that driven by economic statistics, for example record youth unemployment and requirements of longer periods at university/education to get work? There seems to be a slight upward trend in per capita vehicles recently which is also when the economy finally started to turn.
This article notes new car levels are increasing in the UK just as the economy is improving slowly for example. http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/oct/08/why-britain-cant-stop-buying-new-cars
Wasn’t that article about the incredibly cheap terms for new cars in the UK as noone is buying in Europe, as they are loathed to close European car factories and layoff the workers? The 2nd hand market in the UK has seen a bit of a collapse as a result.
I seem to remember you were banned and asked to come back with a less offensive handle.
UK car sales, as the article linked to above states, are a catch up from seriously depressed sales post 2008. Highest sales in five years. Big deal: 13-5=8. Biggest sales since sales fell off the cliff. This is not news and does not add up to an increase in either car numbers nor miles driven in the UK. This is just those in that can afford to replacing their current car later than had been the case. Also as the article mentions desperate suppliers are doing everything possible to move units, including ruinous financing deals. This bounce will flop again. Driving, like North Sea oil, is in structural decline in every country in the OECD. Even in the UK where, outside of London, it seems they’ve done everything possible to destroy the country’s rail system through botched Privatisation and mismanagement.
Get used to it.
Also, I notice that dealerships are starting to use different finance structuring so it’s obviously getting harder out there for them. Balloon payments, based on assumed resale at the end of a finance term, are in wide use right now.
From the linked article:
“As everyone in the industry acknowledges, the 19-month rise is a correction: even if the predicted 2.2m new cars are registered in 2013, it is still 380,000 less than the peak of 2.58m in 2003. And, oddly, given our moans about congestion, car use was falling – particularly among the young – before the recession struck. Some academics believe that mileage per capita has peaked in Britain: like peak oil, there is “peak car” and the car is trundling down a long hill towards senescence.”
You have to be careful also not to mix up car ownership with car use. This is the list of countries by car ownership:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.NVEH.P3?order=wbapi_data_value_2010+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc
Yes, NZ, Australia and US are up there but so are many countries that have very high transit and cycling rates. The Netherlands has more cars per capita than the UK but certainly Dutch people dont drive more often than British people.
Saying that VKT has dropped is not anti-cars, it is just saying that sometimes people are choosing means of transport other than their car. Motorists (which includes the vast majority of transit users and cyclists) should be very happy that the roads will be emptier and we will all be able to get to our destination faster.
There is no war on cars, just a desire not to waste money on unneeded roads. That seems to me to be a very fiscally responsible thing to do and everyone should be happy about that unless they are just blinded by pro-road ideology with no basis in evidence.
I think it is a combination of factors. Youth unemployment is one of them. In Dec 2012 Stats NZ estimated that there was 31% unemployment among youth 15-19 and 19% for 20-24. That is the NEET rate ie not in employment, education or training. These people probably can’t afford a car or a license and probably don’t use PT that much either. So it could be a generational shift, or could be a money issue or a bit of both.
This is a good one on the subject. http://www.calgaryherald.com/Kids+Drive/8993802/story.html
The sooner we recognize that this trend is in fact a paradigm shift, the better.
I think you’re right and it isn’t only restricted to millenials. I have always had a liking for PT but the level of service for most of my life (I’m 43) has been appalling. The more I talk to other people of a similar age, the more I get the response that they too, would use PT if it were frequent, quick, and of a high standard (nice buses / trains, easy to read timetables etc). Given the number of retiree’s I see getting on and off buses at Britomart, especially the NEX, I’m getting the feeling that this shift is not limited to a particular part of the population (even if driving stats might be).
We need a NorthWestern Busway.
Now.
Not 10 or 20 years into the future.
I have it on good authority that behind the scenes it is happening. Patience. I promise.
I’m very glad to hear that. With the changes signalled in the Auckland Plan, it will become even more necessary, and that should be obvious now. If there are any roadblocks (political or otherwise) we can address, I’d like to hear about them so we can support the people who need it.
From what I have had discussed, I think the best option is to stay positive. At least we have a PT favouring mayor.
Unlikely anything will change, especially since it has been revealed that Palino’s campaign team machinated the confession.
Hmm.Seems like kids in Calgary don’t want to grow up, prefer to stay at home in front of a screen and get other people to drive them around. What’s next, they won’t want to ever leave home? Oh wait… The youth unemployment rate in Canada is triple that of adults. Much like here in NZ. You draw obvious conclusions of a generational shift, but I don’t think the trend is a paradigm shift. I think it is a combination of factors.
…a combination of factors that add up to a paradigm shift.
By paradigm shift I mean a total change in culture and viewpoint on life. I don’t believe we have got close to that point. Maybe in 30 years when the boomers are dead and gone. I point to youth unemployment as one factor of several and a generational shift/smartphones/social media as another factor. But youth unemployment in the western world has been a slowly growing issue over the past several decades. It has now grown to a point where it is becoming a major social issue. Major social issues have indirect ways of impacting society. I don’t know the answer to stagnation of VKT but the interpretation of data is the point of contention. A drop in VKT could be related to petrol prices, baby boomers not working/commuting any more or continued rural/urban shift or people driving less on holiday and flying more or growing levels of immigrants working minimum wage jobs who can’t afford a car or culturally are used to PT. I do believe that if there were more jobs around and better pay, then the decline in VKT and licenses issued would not be so prominent because there is definitely a cost element here.
Again I think it is a combination of factors, but this doesn’t necessarily mean a paradigm shift in terms of how society perceives the Car. I strongly support wise PT investment as I think it is the best use of my tax money, but there is no way I would use some graphs of trends to justify PT investment when the factors behind the trends are so board and indeterminate.
You mistake how change occurs. There are people who would still buy rotary dial phones if only they still could. In other words change, or paradigm shifts, are not synchronous. There are early adopters, there are total stick in the muds, the thing to watch out for is trends spreading from the first group towards the later, but you don’t wait until the later have changed or died to call it as happening. You’ll have missed the bus. The VKT figures are now a huge discontinuity from 60 years of consistent upward growth. This ship has sailed Ari, you may not be on it. But it has.
Change we are in the middle of is much less obvious than looking back on it. I suspect you are in a part of town and perhaps career that isn’t exposed to much of the evidence. But also, and I wish this weren’t true, being older I have a longer perspective of the shift in culture. Growing up in south east Auckland (!) I can remember total car culture (I know it’s still strong there). Drinking and driving was basically all there was for teenage entertainment there in the 70s… We are heading for a better world, but that part of town, built solely for the car is going to struggle to keep up.
Also I don’t get your point about petrol price as a cause; yes of course, but are you saying you expect petrol price to go back down to under a dollar a litre anytime soon and stay there? Then we’ll all leap back onto the congested roads grinning away? The kids will throw away their smart phones and prefer hooning to social media?
I am a millenial, and lucky enough to have a job and disposable income at the moment. From what I see in the lives of those around me is that many people have better things to spend their time and money on nowadays too. This year I chose to live near the city so that I waste less time on my commute each day.. But regardless of where I live, I’d rather catch PT and spend the time reading or checking fb than drive and spend an hour looking at the car in front.
Also, I currently own a car but it certainly isn’t at the top of my list of things to spend money on. If I have to buy a new computer next year, or even a new phone, the car will probably be sold to save money.
It’s funny actually.. I have no problem spending a significant amount of money on a computer or camera, as I see the value in those items. But I resent every little cost incurred by my car. Maybe because I’ve had the experience of living overseas in cities where I didn’t need a car, so see it as an imposed cost, not a chosen cost.
Maybe it’s the industry I work in, but there is a whole lot more working from home going on than a few years ago. I only go in 2 or 3 times a month myself now. Catching the train once a week it doesn’t seem quite like the drudgery of having to do so every week day.
With retail in decline there’d be fewer trips to the shops too. Telco and the internet may be driving a lot of these changes.
My office has adopted Microsoft 365 in a big way; that, combined with cheaper and faster connectivity than there was a few years ago has enabled people to work from home 1-3 days per week. It also means people with other duties can go out, do those things, get a bit of work done from the alternate location, and continue as if nothing had happened.
So why havent these trends been seen at any time in the past? I have never heard of such drops in VKT in my lifetime and there have been plenty of times (like in the 1990s) when unemployment in NZ was high.
The big dip after 2011 is probably just the increase in driving age but other factors like less people being in the cohort turning 16 and lower immigration might also be part of the cause.
http://www.stats.govt.nz/tools_and_services/interactive-pop-pyramid.aspx
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_HOTPAug13.aspx
me?
2 points
1) When the 16-32 year olds get older and their kids go to school there may be pressure (time, lack of PT, poor walkway provision) to drive the kids to school. Therefore it is important to address support for walking or busing to school so people are not pressured to financially buy the first or an extra car.
2) Unemployment-yes it is likely to be a World issue as with population growth the will need 600 million new jobs ( said by Helen Clark in a speech at Auckland uni 1-2 months ago.)