Yesterday in Peter’s post about building missing modes, reader Greg N made the following comment about his use of a graph we’ve been using for some time.
That Perth v Auckland graph is getting pretty “last decade” – its now 2015 – we’re halfway through the next decade, (2010-2019) and we have over 12m people on the trains and they’re now partly electrified like Perths was in 1991.
Any chance of (a) an updated graph with 2012,13 and 14 figures being added, and also (b) a fresh graph that moves Perths passenger figures by 20 years “later” to align Perths 1989 numbers with Aucklands 2011 figures (and which then includes the actual Auckland rail figures from 2012 to (Nov) 2014)? And to help make the years show up individually, not just every odd numbered year – trim the Auckland numbers before 2003 as that aligns with Perths 1981 “start figures”.
That way the same sparks effect that Perth had should (a) become obvious as happening here too – something we keep getting told by naysayers that will never happen as we’re not at all like Perth.
and (b) we can use the Perth rate of climb they experienced post 1991 as the visual predictor or where Auckland rail usage is going.
[If the figures are available, I’m able to fiddle a spreadsheet to have a crack at doing that if you like].While Perths experience in the ’90s may [not] be 100% accurate as a exact predictor of Auckland in the ’10s,
I’m damn sure it will be way, way more accurate over the next few years – than all those traffic predictions of late have been.
And the graph he refers to is this one
I don’t have the figures for every year but did manage to find some historical patronage information and more recent data is available here so below I’ve updated the graph to highlight what’s happened since 2011.
Personally I don’t think we’ll quite see the same high level of growth as Perth did which was also driven by the opening of Joondalup Line but I think we will see significant growth for the next few years as we grow towards 20 million trips. Perhaps Perth’s original lines give us an indication of what we can expect to see on our existing rail network prior to the CRL and combined those lines currently carry between 24 and 25 million trips per year.
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Do we know why Perth is seeing a slight decline over recent years?
Possibly economy related seeing as a decent chunk of it is related to mining industry
I’m looking over a few posts over at Skyscraper City suggesting all sorts of things as the cause (probably a combination of all these things) including: Less employment and business activity as the mining boom has ended, slashed frequencies on off peak services, shutdowns and disruptions caused by the construction of Perth City Link, a decline in reliability from railcars and overhead as the maintenance budget has been cut, overcrowding due to lack of trains, freeway widenings and upgrades etc
Do we match Perth more closely if you add the nex?
That 2009 to 2013 period in Perth looks to align pretty much with the early sparks effect we are seeing here. When their patronage went from 55m to what looks like 65m in 4 years before dropping last year.
The slope is similar and the 4 year period if applied to here would mean we would achieve 20m by the end of 2017, which also aligns with expectations if the current growth rate continues as-is.
And of course its more likely to accelerate that rate than stay the same rate as it is now.
Is the difference that in Perth they put passenger area out to new growth areas -Joondalup and then the line to Mandurah. While in Auckland the passenger rail has been within the existing urban limit?
We could have rail to Botany and Whenuapai, if we wanted. If the Government allowed us.
Exactly, passenger rail and affordable housing all in the one package. What is there not to like?
Good question. Are you mad?
That sounds altogether too much of a recipe for success. If you’re in the business of people taking up smoking ( sorry, driving) it makes no sense to build cities which allow or heaven forbid promote a carless existence.
After all , how would we pay for all these roads and why would we?
I wonder what Akld will need after we hit 20-25m after the CRL begins delivering? A new line perhaps?
The big gaps appear to be PT from East Akld (busways coming with time saving train connections at Panmure) and the North Shore. Not sure if a rail line would ever run alongside the NW Motorway out to Westgate? Presumably the best bang for buck would be having a South Eastern loop from Manukau via Botany to Pakuranga and linking to Panmure? The airport link seems good in theory but not sure of patronage benefit vs cost compared to other high patronage catchment areas.
Would be keen to hear people’s thoughts on longer term priorities.
Beyond the CRL the first major new line has to be to the airport. This not only links to the airport but opens up Mangere and Mangere Bridge – so 2 suburbs suddenly have full access to the train network as well as all the large number of workers at the airport having easy access getting to work. This is a great bargin.
Once this happens I bet Mangere Bridge becomes the next Mt Eden, nice old fashioned town centre, Mountain, easy access to quick train into city, quick access to Motorways for the weekend when going away plus right next to a beach.
After that a tunnel to the North Shore.
I think there are actually 4 stations planned between Onehunga and the airport, under the proposed airport line. Massive potential.
Agreed absolutely massive certainty. Mt Roskill spur was the next planned rail extension due to corridor and bridges already setup refer to these guys 2020 plan and written description.
I’d be interested in perth’s fares, feeder bus network was that better than our 1 star privatised. Blocked in traffic going in the wrong direction , with most fleet parked up service?
Perth have 50 cent fares for school students irrespective of distance. Now that is investing in the future of PT by getting the youth market involved and taking parent’s cars off the road in the key morning peak period. This has been mooted to AT on numerous occasions, but with no progress. Limited impact on fare revenue, with huge potential upside for patronage and reducing car congestion.
The perfect solution?
Too simple, too good. Would never happen here.
Auckland Transport would rather count their public transport pennies.
When I went to Perth in 2011, we paid for a family fare. It was $10 for all lines all day long on a Saturday. It was awesome.
I lived in Perth 93-94 and used the train pretty much every work day. A few comments from my experience:
1. Electrification was also the introduction of brand new rolling stock. Friends said there was no comparison with the old diesel service.
2. Development to the north involved extending a 6-lane freeway to Joondalup with the train line down the centre
3. Development backfilled between Joondalup and the rest of the city
4. The design for PT for the northern part of the city was herringbone connecting bus to train
5. Park and ride was designed in from the start
The extension to the south to Mandurah has also involved massive amounts of provision for cars with the extension of the freeway from Jandakot to Mandurah.
As for recent plateauing of patronage I would suggest that as the CBD is dominated by public sector employment you would have to look at trends there rather than mining. From memory the Hammersley Iron HQ is downtown but companies like Woodside Petroleum are nowhere near the train lines, nor are the universities or many of the suburban shopping centres.
Donald I understand that bus to train is as high as 80% in Perth, park n ride may look big as it takes up heaps of space at stations but is way less important than bus connections. This is a vital issue as so many stations are stranded in the middle of the highway.
Patrick, that is probably true. The train network is very limited as TfP points out and basically services the CBD. 3 of the 4 routes are retrofits that don’t necessarily service some of the popular destinations. Buses get you everywhere else although it is a true act of bravery to try to live in Perth without a car.
The graph published above would be way more meaningful if it were broken down to patronage by line. The steep increases in usage may be explained partly by improvement in the consumer experience (faster and more comfortable trips) and partly by the take up of existing capacity as development occurred along the already existing northern route.
http://chartingtransport.com/2013/06/23/what-other-modes-did-train-commuters-use-in-their-journey-to-work/
Buses and private vehicles are about the same network-wide, both a bit lower than walking only. Note though that the total is a bit above 100% – presumably some would be doing drive-train-bus, cycle-train-bus etc. perhaps with the final bus being a shuttle such as the CAT service.
I’d imagine walking would be lower and others higher on the new freeway lines, reverse on the old lines.
That herringbone PT network sounds interesting. I think for Auckland an extensive bus feeder going to a rapid core is better use of resources than park and ride, even if you were beyond a walk/or didn’t want to cycle to PT network you would just park by bus service closest to you on local rd if you were coming in from a long way. I really think park and ride is wasted infrastructure in key spots by transit and duplicates traffic.In a way it is counter productive. The investment should go into a better bus feeder/ rapid bus network with the widest net to catch people from all around then you don’t even need to take a car. That is the problem in Auckland the car mode share is too high and needs to come down 1/3 so motorways actually work and the other sustainable modes can keep growing especially with improved services which reduces demand on the whole network and required spending and numerous other benefits.
Woodside is pretty close and so is chevron and all the other mining companies.
the real reason for a drop is that they have removed previous parking from major stations (murdoch)
You have to get there before 7am for a spot. Trains are full of selfish ignorant people who refuse to move away from the door to allow you to enter. You actually have to push past them forcefully while they stare at you mouthbreathing.
So, you have issues with capacity, people who are too ignorant to change, and having to be aggressive in the peak hours to use the transport. (there are heaps of bullies here)
One more incidental thing, Perth and Melbourne people Will run you over walking, they expect you to move for them, cooperation, collaboration in walking they have not mastered.
Even dogs do it. They refuse.
They now charge everyone 2$ to park, and there are not enough carriages. The platforms are too short for more.
So what you’re saying is that Auckland will do much better 😉
Hey truther, are you saying the parking changes mean fewer people get to the trains or that there aren’t ‘enough carriages’ for all the people that do?
It’s a capacity and civilisation issue.
I hate fighting my way through, and I am 1.87 100 kg.
So, some people go back to their old ways, the car.
Kwinana freeway. It’s backed up both directions(esp south) from 2pm
Sustainability? Not sure, but can never go back. They are building the ring road with the final Roe highway extension.
News is constantly blaring, “buy buy buy, never been a better time to buy in the Perth market” Bunch of propoganda because iron ore prices have almost halved and state gov put out their budget policy prior based on a “wish list” that is supposed to be policy based on iron ore peaks.
for incomne they want to release more land up north 50k and more from cbd, more revenue as long as one freeway, one train line, 3 cars at a time.
So, now they are saying gov workers who leave a position, the role will be filled by someone who makes 2/3 less.
Boom and bust town, so they build for capacity and then let it stagnate.
Black and white mentality. look at the train. N-S E-W
That’s all it will be.
Next boom, maybe airport.
The rail won’t be increased any time soon. Looks like Adelaide will surpass it. They just moved out of diesel. They have more lines.
Not sure Adelaide is any kind of model… those maps are a horrible and illegible mess. They are making a meal of their electrification and the economy is in a hole [stopped building subsidised gas guzzlers there]. Auckland do it a lot better than A-town; electrification nearly complete on all lines and ridership booming…. Perth still way ahead though.
https://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/content/download/281959/1524631/version/1/file/14013_NetworkMap_November_2014_web+APPROVED.pdf
http://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/content/download/277990/1504338/version/3/file/14007_City_map_November_2014_A3_WEB+APPROVED.pdf
https://adelaidemetro.com.au/content/download/271180/1469292/version/2/file/Rail_network_121014.pdf
Thanks for the correction – 20 years is a long time.
To reinforce two points from that time
1. The train network basically serviced the CBD. We lived our first year without a car and the train was next to useless except for me going to work.
2. More importantly transport infrastructure preceded much of the development of the northern corridor.
Aesthetically those northern developments don’t do much for me but it is a place you should look at to see how the nexus of development, public and private transport can pan out.
“the real reason for a drop is that they have removed previous parking from major stations (murdoch)”
Doubt it. Even seemingly massive car parks don’t contribute that much to patronage, besides Murdoch is probably the most successful suburban station on the network for feeder bus usage and there have been no end of improvements to those of late.
“there are not enough carriages. The platforms are too short for more.”
More trains have been ordered and more trains are being run. Platform lengths are irrelevant when there are still half-length trains running, and in any event there is still capacity to increase frequencies with existing signalling (though the express patterns may need to be looked at.)
As for Adelaide – really “more lines” means one extra branch line that runs a completely useless service on weekdays and nothing at all on weekends, and that’s counting the tram as a line. And in terms of route-km I believe Perth is larger anyway.Electrification there really hasn’t done that well and service frequencies are still lacking nearly everywhere – even the one mainline that is electric still only runs every 30 minutes on weekends and a horrible hourly frequency at night. Other areas are even worse!
I like to think that Auckland and even a completely stagnant Perth would be better than that for quite some time to come.
I did some work for Westrail sometime around 1990. What impressed me then was that they had (mostly) 15 minute clockface timetables off-peak and people used them – not like wellington and auckland then with 30 minutes at best and only hourly to Paraparaumu, Upper Hutt and Waitakere. If the electric timetable achieves 10 minute headways as proposed, we should see a significant increase in patronage.
Agreed. The 30min off-peak (hourly in late evening) on Tranz Metro totally stifles off-peak usage. Partly explains why Wellington has such a high peak/off-peak usage ratio. Many transport managers in NZ have a 1970’s mindset that PT is only for peak-time commuting. I had hoped that the recent infrastructure upgrades and introduction of the Matangis would have been accompanied by a timetable re-vamp, but the opportunity was totally missed.
By the way, interesting to see that you are still around. You and Ross Hayward did some good stuff back in the old NZR days!
Id like to see Wellingtons off peak frequencys improved, Porirua & Upper Hutt to everytwenty min, Jvill to every fifteen, Mellings to half hourly.
Approximately 60% of weekday patronage is from the peaks. Of the other 40% the majority of this is within the 9am-3pm interpeak. Let’s call it a third which equates to 4 million per annum currently. That could be 5 million pretty quickly with improved interpeak frequency from 9am – 3pm. What is the intended interpeak frequency on each of the main lines once the new timetables are completed and the Western Line is running at 10 min peak frequency? Is it the minimum of 15 mins from 7am – 7pm in line with the frequent network on the buses?
What would be required in Akld to deliver this kind of interpeak frequency? Maybe another 5-10 drivers? Increased fuel and maintenance costs. I wonder what this would do for patronage, especially for the key tertiary and school student markets and the increasingly mobile SuperGolds.
In terms of the Auckland buses if we gave bus priority on all the arterials, in particular the core network or future planned rapid class A and resourced with approx 40% bus fleet and got frequency down to 3 minutes what would that do? In particular 6am to 10pm ie 2 x 8 hr shifts and buses on full rotation. The other 40% frequent on 15minute, and the other 20% wider catchment lesser frequency but still doing maximum runs during this period. The whole fleet working 6am to 10pm – 100 % usage then drop all 3 types down to 20% night shift. Would that improve service? and be up to par as to where this mode should be, maximising rail and doing some spine work itself, that is the plan rapid transit mainly by bus next 20 years. Why not get this approach in principle now without a full busway. This is most the problem right now we aren’t even starting with a PT seed on most these key routes but waiting for eternity for a class A network. The war is over by then and billions of wasted car mode spend.
Is Perth a “de centralized” city like Auckland?
Perth is considerably more dispersed than Auckland; lower density, weaker centre.